|
|
發表於 2007-12-15 17:57:24
|
顯示全部樓層
原帖由 p7rea13 於 2007-12-15 03:28 PM 發表
如股市大跌,金應該大升,還是先跌後升?
我本人以付款方式,subscribe了在美國一位金融及股票分析員.我先觀測了他在一般金融網上發表的文章好一段時間,才以付款登錄其網站.
他近日一直保持提醒我們 '近來所有世界股市,債券市場,所有期貨市場都處於高位,恐怕快要進入調整,更甚的會達30%,而金則可能暫作回調致20%'~~當然只是他的預測,只可作為參考...很多時候,什麼專家都沒用,定必要小心投資為上!因為我是一個至為失敗的人辦 !
我在此再轉載他的文章:
Riding upon the greatest credit bubble in history, greater than anything ever – (my interpretation of Doug Noland) one has to
wonder what the future holds, if that bubble is breaking. That bubble includes the greatest housing bubble in history, the greatest world stock and bond bubble.
Just for the US housing bubble, it is estimated that, in a mere 5 years since 2002, $5 trillion was both pulled out of US housing and
also the housing stock rose that much in value. $10 trillion total.
Now that the unraveling begins, one wonders, have we seen the bottom or only the beginning?
Well, judging from the ever expanding credit collapse worldwide, the answer is, we are seeing the beginning. If there is a hiatus’ in 08, it’s only to delay the inevitable. A delayed credit crisis and deleveraging worldwide. But, if it’s not delayed, then look for a great world stock crash in the first half of 08.
I’m not talking about a 10% correction from where we are now, 13700 on the Dow, or other world indexes also at highs (sans
Japan which hit a high in the late 80’s early 90s’ at about 45000 on the Nikkei).
I’m talking about a more than 30% drop in the Dow and world stock indexes. If that happens, you can be sure the commodity
complex, including oil will drop that amount.
Then, we are talking about the aftermath, maybe a depression. Maybe, a massive world financial and real assets deleveraging. There are already signs of this happening. Take the massive world credit contraction. Take the serious US and UK housing bubble collapses.
Remember, the present world financial markets, commodity markets, real asset markets, and bond markets, are all at record highs,
due to the incredibly cheap credit from the US and Japan during their ultra low interest rate regimes in the early part of this decade. Japan actually started this in the early 90’s with their half percent or lower interest rates to combat their stock and real estate
crashes just after ’90.
A case can be made we are merely working out the natural evolution of those crashes, and in the US, we had a follow on crash in
2000, 01. Then the massive US version of a Japan type deflation battle, with US interest rates dropping to 1%, and the massive US housing bubble that followed.
In Japan’s case, that ultra low interest rate regime failed because the Japanese consumer is averse to borrowing. Not so the US
consumer, who bailed the US out of recession after 2002, and then the world, with a gangbusters world economic boom – fueled
on credit.
Of course, that credit regime was so loose that we now have $5 or 10 trillion worth of new debt on the US consumer, not to
mention all the rest of the West, the UK figures here, and all the rest of the West.
Now that we see weekly deterioration of world credit markets, like this week, Societe bank in France taking on $ 4 billion of bad
SIVs because they were about to be forced into a fire sale, HSBC taking $20 billion of more bad mortgage derivatives onto their
books, too last week or so, Banks bailing out their money market funds, (at least so far) lest panic flight appears, like the Florida
mess, BoA freezing a big fund this week from withdrawals.
Central banks lowering interest rates to combat the freezing CP markets, the rising Libor rates that determine what US ARMs reset
to… the US Fed and ECB putting out so far $1 trillion in emergency financial market liquidity since August – in my estimation.
Or else see the entire banking industry in the EU and US collapse.
We are on the verge of a gigantic world financial deleveraging. The credit market’s paralysis shows this.
If all this does not abate, we are going to see a huge stock crash in 08. We will see commodities fall 30% from their record highs
this year. We will see gold do a temporary 20% fall (maybe only a few weeks window at those prices, then a recovery in flight to
gold for financial safety).
It would seem that 07 was a dress rehearsal. What will 08 bring?
I have heard all the typical market timing arguments, that the Chinese won’t let markets tank in 08 cause of the Olympics. The US won’t allow a market crash cause 08 is an election year. I don’t think that is going to stop what appears to be a huge world stock crash that is getting ready to happen, due to the uncontrollable world credit collapse. In early 08, we will definitoldy see corporate
earnings dropping, and world stock markets will take that as the cue to sell off hard.
We probably have peak everything right now.
This week’s PrudentSquirrel Sunday newsletter has a general discussion about some ways to protect your savings. Prudent Squirrel
subscribers also get mid week email alerts. We have anticipated the 5 major world stock and gold drops this year by up to a week in those alerts. |
|
IP卡
狗仔卡
提升卡
置頂卡
沉默卡
喧囂卡
變色卡
顯身卡
