Bernanke Puts Reputation on Line, Emphasizes Outlook Instead of Inflation

BY

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke put his inflation-fighting credibility on the line after barely six months in the job, leaving interest rates unchanged even as consumer-price increases quicken.

Bernanke led a majority vote yesterday to keep the benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent, and the statement emphasized the outlook for prices rather than the recent pickup in inflation. In the process, he lost unanimity among policy makers as 1 of the policy makers voted against the decision, preferring an 18th-consecutive increase.

The Fed said prices will ``moderate over time'' as the cumulative effect of prior rate increases, surging energy prices and a sagging housing market slow growth. Fed watchers said the strategy is risky because there's no sign inflation is abating, and failure may erode the credibility built up under former chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. Moderating economic growth will lead to moderating inflation. That is going to be the test of his credibility.''

Between now and the Sept. 20 policy meeting, the government will release at least three inflation reports, as well as data on housing, retail sales and job growth. If the indicators show inflation isn't moderating, economists said the decision likely marks a pause, not a peak, in the rate cycle.

U.S. Treasuries fell and yields climbed from near their lowest in four months ahead of a Treasury auction of $13 billion of 10-year notes today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 3 basis points or 0.03 percentage points, to 4.95 percent as of 8:30 a.m. in New York.

An increase yesterday may have made it easier for Bernanke to sell a pause because it would have damped speculation he's softer on inflation than his predecessors, some Fed watchers said.

Still, futures traders took their cue from the statement and pared bets that the central bank will boost rates again. December contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade showed about a 53 percent probability the benchmark rate will finish the year at 5.5 percent.

The statement yesterday is Bernanke's third attempt to get markets to buy into his outlook.

[ Last edited by BY on 2006-8-10 at 12:28 AM ]

andy

貝南克這次做得對,美國其實需要減息

BY

andy  在 2006-8-10 00:28 發表:

貝南克這次做得對,美國其實需要減息

Bernanke Puts Reputation on Line - 他是賭他自己的Reputation。希望他 pass 啦。

801GUEST

謝謝BY，

在下不譯了，怎樣也好，所有東西都已在價值上反映了，只怪白藍黑生不逢時!

GOOD NITE!

小雷