US Nov Employ Report Strong-ish, Payrolls +132,000

BY

The U.S. November employment report contains disturbing news for financial markets, showing a still fairly strong labor market--not least because of upward revisions to prior period payroll totals--and more than a few quirks that will leave analysts guessing if growth can reaccelerate.

The report was strong on its face, with November payrolls posting a gain of +132,000 jobs and the September-October net payroll revision at +42,000. This was more than expected.

In the data oddities, Average Hourly Earnings was +0.2% for +4.1% over the year. The monthly gain was lower than expected but the fast pace is disturbing. November 2005 was a low earnings number, thus this was something of an artificial gain.

Hours were up overall but manufacturing hours were down, suggesting the monthly gain in production will be muted.

The civilian unemployment rate edged up just 0.06 point prior to rounding, possibly due to another quirk. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said there was an early household survey using the November 5 week as the reference period, in order to avoid conducting interviews during the Thanksgiving holiday. The payroll survey was later, as was expected.

This move in the household survey could have skewed the unemployment rate, as there could have been layoffs during the Nov. 11 Veterans Day holiday.

November payrolls included: manufacturing -15,000, construction -29,000 in its second large drop, retail +20,400 (+394,200 NSA), local government ex-education +2,900 (in no sign of an election worker gain), temporary services +4,800, and administrative services +19,400.

The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is still growing--the average monthly jobs gain is +106,000 so far in Q4 versus +185,000 in Q3 after the upward revisions. With more than even odds that Q4 payrolls will be revised higher based on recent patterns, this suggests the economy is not slowing that much.

睡睡

美最新公布的11月份非农就业增加13.2万，高于预期的11万，美元急剧上扬。

欧元/美元在数据后跌至1.3239，英镑/美元跌至1.9532，美元/日元升至115.86。

但美国10月就业数据自9.2万向下修正至7.9万，这令美元回吐涨幅。目前汇价仍在急剧
震荡中。

BY

美11月份非農職位增13.2萬個 / 市場預期增10.5萬個

BY

美11月份平均時薪升0.2% / 市場預期升0.3%

金星

it's meaningless for big players

BY

金星  在 2006-12-8 21:51 發表:

it's meaningless for big players

Agreed.

ppighead

金星  在 2006-12-8 09:51 PM 發表:

it's meaningless for big players

agreed
excuse only
what price will u covered yr buying stock this wave????

BY

Crude  63.59  +1.10

金星

BY  在 2006-12-8 22:10 發表:

Crude  63.59  +1.10

still believe crude may c 65+ end of year..

BY

金星  在 2006-12-8 22:30 發表:

still believe crude may c 65+ end of year..

No doubt to cope with the cold weather high demand.