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發表於 2006-12-19 00:17:01
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[quote] 魯賓 在 2006-12-19 00:05 發表:
"美圓有d動力 金价似要試600 " - 請看AEB 的 Forecast, 對金价不是好消息。
Dollar to strengthen in 2007 as US economy recovers - American Express Bank
The dollar should strengthen in 2007 as the US economy shows signs of picking up after another quarter or two of economic slowdown, according to American Express Bank.
In its global outlook report for next year, it forecasts that US growth will slow to a "still respectable" 2.6 pct in 2007 from 3.3 pct in 2006.
Contrary to market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve by mid-2007, American Express expects the Fed to remain on hold, which will help the dollar higher against the euro and the pound.
"Markets look too pessimistic on the US outlook and are underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tolerate sub-trend GDP growth and weak data in order to ensure that core inflation falls back," said John Calverley, chief economist at American Express Bank.
"Although housing will remain a drag, buoyant wages and strong business investment should limit the overall impact on the economy."
In Europe and Japan economic growth is expected to be near the trend rates of 2 pct, according the report. The European Central Bank is forecast to keep interest rates in the 3.5 pct to 4.0 pct range, while the Bank of Japan will continue to lift rates slowly towards 1.0 pct, American Express said.
Its forecasts concluded that the combined economic trends will help the dollar rise against the euro and the pound but remain steady against the yen, at around 118.0. The euro is expected to fall to 1.22 usd by the end of 2007 from around 1.31 usd now, while the pound is forecast to drop to 1.79 usd from around 1.95 currently. |
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發表於 2006-12-19 13:26:58
