''carry trade""

金星

Carry trades have been unwinding like bandages on a mummy this week, leaving the dollar in tatters versus the yen.

But as long as the pullback remains confined to mostly speculative investors and the bulk of other carry traders - institutions and private Japanese investors - hold firm in their positions, then recent events may not inflict much more damage on the greenback.

"The major chunk of carry trades are coming from Japanese investors, and they're not going to immediatoldy run for the hills over this," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets.

That's because a profit can still be made by borrowing a low-yielding currency, like the yen, and "carrying" it - or using it to buy currency that pays more interest, like the dollar or sterling.

Still, there is a breaking point for all investors, speculative and long-term, and if the yen were to continue to climb significantly versus the dollar and the euro, then carry trade unwinding may turn more universal.

The dollar, McCarthy said, would have to dip to the sub-Y110s before the majority of institutions and individual Japanese investors began pulling their carry trades. Thursday afternoon, the yen stood at Y117.49.

Some analysts say levels around Y110 are not out of the question. The Japanese economy is likely to stage a rebound this year, which could encourage more capital inflow and less outflow, and give a carry trade-harming boost to the yen.
Yen Strength Looms

But others argue that Japan's economy could grow at a rapid pace this year amid stronger export performances, which could improve consumer and business confidence and may lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the BOJ, despite the bank's suggestions that such increases would be gradual.

Analysts at ABN Amro Bank said in a research note that they would not be surprised to see Japanese economic data begin to out-perform other majors and Asian countries, which could lead to further yen gains.

These same analysts last Friday warned of a carry trade unwind similar to what happened this week, saying "the carry trade, while justified on various grounds, has become excessive and has blinded the market to a number of fresh developments that point to upside risks in the yen."

Naomi Fink, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, said the latest data out of Japan suggests that funds are indeed being repatriated from abroad, which could also build up the yen.

In March, Japanese corporations and institutions often repatriate funds from abroad before the end of the Japanese fiscal year on March 31.

迷茫之鍊金術士

金星  在 2007-3-2 03:19 AM 發表:

Carry trades have been unwinding like bandages on a mummy this week, leaving the dollar in tatters versus the yen.

But as long as the pullback remains confined to mostly speculative investors a ...

gd news, thx

kwy

Thanks 金星兄！

睡睡

转 曹曹

[Mar 2] 抛售潮开始唔好做猪

　　3月1日，周四。2001至2006年7月，日本央行实行零利率政策，到底有几多资金被用作投资其他项目？去年5月至6月全球股市回落，理由系日本银行扬言7月加息，引发日圆Unwind行动。今年2月日圆又再加息四分一厘，及会否引发另一次日圆Unwind行动？市场上存在几多Carry Trade？东京三菱UFJ银行估计，对沖基金

睡睡

　　全球接近一万只对沖基金，唔少已过度投资（over-invested）或过度槓桿（over-leveraged），VIX指数显示佢地过分忽略眼前风险，短期股市调整10％或以上，没乜大不了。参考2000年纳指在3月10日见顶，大抛售4月初才开始；今年恒指在1月24日见顶，大抛售2月22日才开始，即超级大户高价派货已一个月，早已形成沉重头！以H股为例，今年1月3日见顶、内地A股在2月27日才见顶，即国企股派发

雷文

金星  在 2007-3-2 03:19 AM 發表:

Carry trades have been unwinding like bandages on a mummy this week, leaving the dollar in tatters versus the yen.

But as long as the pullback remains confined to mostly speculative investors a ...

星哥仔，如果yen有110你會唔會沽爆佢???

若果英鎊2算，加紙1算，貴貴都借來沽爆佢啦!!! :o:o:o

謝貼!!!

雷文

睡睡  在 2007-3-2 10:13 AM 發表:

转 曹曹

[Mar 2] 抛售潮开始唔好做猪

　　3月1日，周四。2001至2006年7月，日本央行实行零利率政策，到底有几多资金被用作投资其他项目？去年5月至6月全 ...

謝謝睡睡貼曹曹!!!

在下唯有貼林林啦!!! :P:P:P

BY

雷文  在 2007-3-2 11:53 發表:

星哥仔，如果yen有110你會唔會沽爆佢???

若果英鎊2算，加紙1算，貴貴都借來沽爆佢啦!!! :o:o:o

謝貼!!!

如果yen有110你會唔會沽爆佢???

雷文兄：别忘記隻Yen曾有80的記錄。

雷文

資金過剩本為經濟繁榮民間累積巨額財富的大佳之象，但資金超額供應（excess），根據奧國學派理論的推斷，必會同時造成資金廉宜（投資成本下降，近年流行於各地物業融資的低於最優惠利率的按揭利率便是一例）、過度投資進而引致經濟資源浪費，「投機泡沫」便在這種情形下形成。近年的情況正是如此，石油有價、中國出口貨橫掃先進國家（後進國固無論矣）消費市場，結果是油元和人元（sino-dollars，中國外貿順差賺進的美元）大量湧入以美國為主的西方資本市場，加上因所謂「利率差價交易」（carry trades）即銀行和外匯炒家為了一點息差而創造出來以萬億計美元，市場遂有美元泛濫之「喜」─過量美元追逐供應趕不上要求的各種投資商品，投資市場大旺、投機活動火熱，股價與物價齊飛；可是，「喜」極而「悲」是自然規律，資金充裕導致過分樂觀的亢奮投資心態，在通脹受控經濟長期穩步增長的「外部環境」配合下，令投資者間歇性的愚行又成普遍現象，「好友」已不相信股價樓價油價會下挫。換句話說，西方市場本身憂患重重，當格林斯平提出警告、耐用品訂單明顯萎縮、ＧＤＰ實際數據向下調整（去年第四季ＧＤＰ增幅由百分之三點五修訂至二點二）及樓市交投微增但平均樓價跌百分之五的消息在一個上午盡出之下，道瓊斯指數遂錄得可觀跌幅。認為「世界是平的」的「全球主義者」，相信周二中國股市暴挫，是美國下跌的禍首，看了上述的分析，當知實情並不如此，中國股市急瀉令和與其關係甚深的公司諸如高盛的股價亦跌去約一成，理由可以理解，但說它拖跌美股，則言重了。

　　中國股市近期雖然炒得翻江倒海，連國家領導人亦要出「口術」使之降溫，不過，大體而言，中國寬鬆的貨幣政策並無收緊的跡象（最近提高銀行存貸比率效應有限），巨額經常賬盈餘、人民幣匯價偏低以至缺乏多元化投資媒介，令股市升完可以再升，暴挫後便迅速反彈……。股市幾乎成為「過剩」資金的唯一出路，這種情況短期內不會蛻變。

　　股市有升有跌，升得高跌得重的鐵律，內地投資者必須親身領會，投資心智才會成熟，當局實在不必太費心，特別在利率偏低資金泛濫的環境下，除非立法褫奪或限制股民買賣股票的自由，不然，沒有嚴厲財金政策配合，單憑口頭警告是難收宏效的。

　　中國財金當局現在要關注的是，美國經濟今年會否一如格老所言出現衰退，「末日派」論者認為美國不同經濟層次在利率「從天而降」（從六厘五分十多次下調至一厘）的那幾年，出現不符合經濟原則的投資，現在因此可能引發物業衰退、汽車業衰退、製造業衰退、資本性投資衰退，而低於最優惠利率的物業按揭率（即本港的Ｐ減利率）令太多尚無資格置業者分期供樓，樓價已跌百分之五，若再挫便會出現大量負資產者，果如是，來自物業升值的財富效應便會消失甚且有負效應，消費情緒肯定受打擊，此時聯儲局無計可施只有減息，但減息不等於會刺激經濟增長，在「從天而降」利率拾級而下的○二年美國仍有一次「溫和的衰退」，現在又豈會例外！

　　美國經濟硬著陸，環球經濟俱受衝擊。美國在政治外交上有萬般不是，人人避之則吉；在經濟上則大多數國家仍要分享其殘羹剩飯，因此「美國打噴嚏全球傷風」，而中國經濟還可能患「肺炎」，這是她過分依賴對美輸出所致！

　　美國在年內出現衰退，實是中國最不願見的事，因為這一外部因素不在其五年規劃之中，應付起來難免手忙腳亂；筆者不知道中國面對美國需求萎縮對美出口放緩時有何因應之策，唯相信寬鬆的貨幣政策會持續……。在現階段，中國領導人似乎把經濟盛衰與國力掛扣，而國力強等於領導有方，這是計劃經濟者的自然心態，和資本主義國家想盡辦法微調經濟失敗後政府從容面對衰退的情況大大不同；加上主辦奧運之期不遠，萬一期間經濟不景，有關方面也許會認為臉上無光！若為扭轉這種劣勢而進行大規模不顧後果的行政干預，將對經濟發展造成難以彌補的傷害。

佢兩兄弟玩晒，一個睇渣，一個睇沽，實有一個中。難怪亞rich柒咁buy佢地。

雷文

BY  在 2007-3-2 11:59 AM 發表:

如果yen有110你會唔會沽爆佢???

雷文兄：别忘記隻Yen曾有80的記錄。

到時見110又唔係咁講架啦，一般專家都是這樣對答 :P:P:P