格林斯潘對美國經濟的講話

小道消息

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said he still sees a one-third chance of a recession in the U.S. economy this year, as consumption eases and the housing market slows.

A ``mild recovery'' in the second quarter is not very strong, according to a recording of Greenspan's comments today to a conference hosted by Merrill Lynch & Co. in Singapore obtained by Bloomberg News.

``There is no doubt there is a slowdown going on the U.S.,'' Greenspan said via satoldlite from Washington. ``We are clearly having troubles in the capital investment area, as well as potentially in the consumption area and obviously housing being a significant drag.''

The U.S. stock market yesterday tumbled the most in almost two months after falling retail sales, higher import prices and a wider trade deficit heightened concern the economy will slow. U.S. policy makers on May 9 kept the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 percent and said inflation is the biggest risk facing the economy despite a yearlong slowdown.

In March, Greenspan said there was a ``one-third probability'' of a recession this year and the current expansion wouldn't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor. Greenspan in late February predicted that U.S. economic growth might stagnate, a view at odds with those of Ben S. Bernanke, his successor, and other Fed officials.

`Algebraic Implications'

``At the moment, I still say as I said before, by algebraic implications, the odds are 2 to 1 we won't have a recession,'' Greenspan said today.

Asia is more likely to suffer from ``asset-related'' problems than a repeat of the 1997-98 financial crisis that depleted the region's foreign-exchange reserves, Greenspan said. China's CSI 300 Index has climbed 49 percent since its 9 percent slump on Feb. 27 triggered a global stock market rout.

Increased bank lending and money inflows from overseas have created property asset bubbles in South Korea and India, making Seoul the world's second-priciest city and Mumbai apartments cost as much as Manhattan's.

``It's hard to imagine the U.S. economy going into recession, when the Fed keeps rates so low,'' said Kazuhiko Sano, chief strategist at Tokyo-based Nikko Citigroup Ltd., the fifth- largest buyer at government debt auctions.

Southeast Asia's export-dependent economies will be hurt by a slowdown in U.S. consumption, Greenspan said. Still, higher domestic spending may to limit any impact of declining exports, he said.

Asian Exports

``There is no question if consumption in the U.S. slows down, you'll find that exports in Southeast Asia will slow down somewhat,'' he said. ``Overall, Asia and specifically, the developing world is moving at twice the pace of the developed world and as the extraordinarily high savings rate begins to be employed domestically, part of that will be offset.''

His comments support the conclusion drawn by Asian finance ministers attending the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Kyoto this month.

Asia will withstand a slowdown in the U.S. and Europe this year, driven by expansion in China and India, the two fastest- growing major economies in the world, the region's finance ministers said.

The ADB in March raised its forecast for the region's developing economies this year, citing a pick-up in spending by consumers and companies that will cushion the impact of weaker overseas sales.

``While a moderate slowdown is expected this year in the U.S. and the European Union, I believe China and India will continue to be the driving forces of the world economy,'' said South Korean Finance Minister Kwon Okyu.

小道消息

在新加坡的一個經濟論壇上，前美國聯邦儲備理事會(FED)主席格林斯潘在華盛頓通過衛星，向新加坡聽眾發表講話，全球經濟成長將有助於緩解美國經濟成長腳步放慢。此外，只要中國人為壓低人民幣匯率，中國貿易失衡的狀況就很難修正。
  
" 他說目前美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性為三分之一。"

今年2月格林斯潘曾表示，美國經濟可能在年底之前陷入衰退，這引發了市場動蕩。稍晚他表示，預計衰退的可能性為三分之一。
  
格林斯潘的言論與貝南克的講話形成鮮明對照。FED現任主席貝南克之前曾認為美國經濟衰退的機率下降。

徐州三金