8月14日黄金牛市第二波开始启动

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Stage two of the gold bull market is just beginning Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 07:28 PM GMT

A war breaks out in the Caucasus, pitting Russia against a close ally of the United States. Inflation reaches a new peak in the euro-zone. The CPI reaches the highest in Britain since Bank of England independence. Rampant inflation sweeps the developing world.

All that glitters is not reliable in these uncertain times

Yet gold crashes. It has failed to deliver on its core promises as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, at least for now. Why?
Four possible answers:
1) Nobody seriously believes that Russia will over-play its hand. The world could not care less about Georgia anyway. Ergo, this is a bogus geopolitical crisis.
2) The inflation story is vastly exaggerated in the OECD core of countries that still make up 60pc of the global economy. The price of gold is already looking beyond the oil and food spike of early to mid 2008 (a lagging indicator of loose money two to three years ago) to the much more serious matter of debt-deflation that lies ahead.
3) The seven-year slide of the dollar is over as investors at last wake up to the reality that the global economy is falling off a cliff. Indeed, the US is the only G7 country that is not yet in or on the cusp recession. (It soon will be, but by then others will be prostrate). As an anti-dollar play, gold is finished for this cycle.
4) The entire commodity boom has hit the buffers. Looming world recession (growth below 3pc on the IMF definition) trumps the supercycle for the time being.
Gold has fallen from $1030 an ounce in February to $807 today in London trading. It has collapsed through key layers of technical support, triggering automatic stop-loss sales. The Goldman Sachs short-position that I have been observing with some curiosity has paid off.
For gold bugs, the unthinkable has now happened. The metal has fallen through its 50-week moving average, the key support line that has held solid through the seven-year bull market. This week is not over yet, of course. If gold recovers enough in coming days, it could still close above the line.
Courtesy of my old colleague Peter Brimelow - whose columns on gold are a must-read - note that Australia's Privateer point and figure chart[/url] has also broken its upward line for the first time since 2002. This is serious technical damage.
So have we reached the moment when gold bugs must start questioning their deepest assumptions. Have they bought too deeply into the "dollar-collapse/M3 monetary bubble" tale, ignoring all the other moving parts in the complex global system? Nobody wants to be left holding the bag all the way down to the bottom of the slide, long after the hedge funds have sold out.
Well, my own view is that gold bugs should start looking very closely at something else: the implosion of Europe. (Japan is in recession too)
Germany's economy shrank by 1pc in Q2. Italy shrank by 0.3pc. Spain is sliding into a crisis that looks all too like the early stages of Argentina's debacle in 2001. The head of the Spanish banking federation today pleaded with the European Central Bank for rescue measures to end the credit crisis.
The slow-burn damage of the over-valued euro is becoming apparent in every corner of the eurozone. The ECB misjudged the severity of the downturn, as executive board member Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi admitted today in the Italian press. By raising interest rates into the teeth of the storm last month, Frankfurt has made it that much more likely that parts of Europe's credit system will seize up as defaults snowball next year.
As readers know, I do not believe the eurozone is a fully workable currency union over the long run. There was a momentary "convergence" when the currencies were fixed in perpetuity, mostly in 1995. They have diverged ever since. The rift between North and South was not enough to fracture the system in the first post-EMU downturn, the dotcom bust. We have moved a long way since then. The Club Med bloc is now massively dependent on capital inflows from North Europe to plug their current account gaps: Spain (10pc), Portugal (10pc), Greece (14pc). UBS warned that these flows are no longer forthcoming.
The central banks of Asia, the Mid-East, and Russia have been parking a chunk of their $6 trillion reserves in European bonds on the assumption that the euro can serve as a twin pillar of the global monetary system alongside the dollar. But the euro is nothing like the dollar. It has no European government, tax, or social security system to back it up. Each member country is sovereign, each fiercely proud, answering to its own ancient rythms.
It lacks the mechanism of "fiscal transfers" to switch money to depressed regions. The Babel of languages keeps workers pinned down in their own country. The escape valve of labour mobility is half-blocked. We are about to find out whether EMU really has the levels of political solidarity of a nation, the kind that holds America's currency union together through storms.
My guess is that political protest will mark the next phase of this drama. Almost half a million people have lost their jobs in Spain alone over the last year. At some point, the feeling of national impotence in the face of monetary rule from Frankfurt will erupt into popular fury. The ECB will swallow its pride and opt for a weak euro policy, or face its own destruction.
What we are about to see is a race to the bottom by the world's major currencies as each tries to devalue against others in a beggar-thy-neighbour policy to shore up exports, or indeed simply because they have to cut rates frantically to stave off the consequences of debt-deleveraging and the risk of an outright Slump.
When that happens - if it is not already happening - it will become clear that the both pillars of the global monetary system are unstable, infested with the dry rot of excess debt.
The Fed has already invoked Article 13 (3) - the "unusual and exigent circumstances" clause last used in the Great Depression - to rescue Bear Stearns. The US Treasury has since had to shore up Fannie and Freddie, the world's two biggest financial institutions.
Europe's turn will come next. We will discover that Europe cannot conduct such rescues. There is no lender of last resort in the system. The ECB is prohibited by the Maastricht Treaty from carrying out direct bail-outs. There is no EU treasury. So the answer will be drift and paralysis.
When EU Single Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy was asked at a dinner what Brussels would have done if the eurozone faced a crisis like Bear Stearns, he rolled his eyes and thanked the Heavens that so such crisis had yet happened.
It will.
Gold bugs, you ain't seen nothing yet. Gold at $800 looks like a bargain in the new world currency disorder.

datuhao

小小CJZ

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ljh2008

夜光兄

哇細拍狼

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jones

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金牛市的階段二是正義起點星期二， 2008年8月12日， 07:28 PM格林維志時間

A戰爭發生在高加索，點蝕俄國反對美國的一個接近的盟友。 通貨膨脹在歐洲區域到達一個新的峰頂。 CPI到達最高在英國從英國銀行獨立。 失控的通貨膨脹清掃發展中國家。

閃爍的所有不是可靠的在這些不定的時期

，金子崩潰。 它在它的核心諾言未能至少暫時投擲作為安全避風港和通貨膨脹樹籬。 為什麼？
四個可能的答復：
1) 沒人嚴重相信俄國將在戲劇它的手。 世界不能對佐治亞無論如何關心。 因此，這是一次偽造地緣政治的危機。
2) 通貨膨脹故事在仍然組成60pc全球性經濟國家的經濟合作與發展組織核心浩大地被誇大。 金子的價格在油和食物釘及早之外已經看到仲2008年(寬鬆金錢绝熱材料顯示二到三年前)對更多在前面債務塌陷的嚴肅的問題。
3) 美元的7年的幻燈片是作為投資者在為時醒到現實全球性經濟下跌峭壁。 的確，美國是不或在尖頂後退的唯一的G7國家。 (它很快將是，但那時其他將是弄倒)。 作為反美元戲劇，金子為這個週期被完成。
4) 整個商品景氣擊中了緩衝。 隱約地出現的世界後退(成長在3pc之下在IMF定義)暫時用王牌取勝supercycle。
金子從$1030在2月今天下落了每盎司到$807在倫敦貿易。 它通過技術支持關鍵層數崩潰了，觸發自動停止損失銷售。 我觀察以一些求知慾的Goldman Sachs短位置付清。
為金臭蟲，難以想像現在發生了。 金屬通過它的50星期移動平均數，通過7年的牛市拿著固體的關鍵支撐線下落了。 當然這個星期不是。 如果金子在未來幾天恢復足够，它可能在線之上仍然關閉。

我的老同事彼得-專欄禮貌在金子是必須讀-的Brimelow注意澳洲的Privateer點和圖圖第一次也打破了它的向上線自2002年以來。 這是嚴重的技術損傷。
如此，當金臭蟲必須開始對他們最深刻的假定表示懷疑時，有我們到達了片刻。 他們買了太深深地入「美元collapse/M3金錢泡影」傳說，忽略所有其他運動機件在複雜全局系統？ 在套利基金全部售光了之後，沒人想要留下一直拿著袋子下來給幻燈片的底部，長。
很好，我自己的意圖是金臭蟲應該開始非常嚴密注視著其他： 歐洲爆聚。 (日本太在後退)
德國的經濟由1pc在Q2收縮了。 意大利由0.3pc收縮了。 西班牙滑入2001年太看所有像阿根廷的大混亂早期的危機。 西班牙銀行業務聯盟的頭今天懇求了與歐洲中央銀行為了搶救措施能結束信用危機。

慢燒損傷被估價過高的歐洲變得明顯在eurozone的每個角落。 ECB判斷錯轉淡的嚴肅，執行委員會成員Lorenzo在意大利press.今天承認的Bini-Smaghi。 通過上個月提高利率入風暴的牙，法蘭克福做了它更多可能歐洲的信用制度的部分將佔領和默認雪球明年。
讀者知道，我不相信eurozone從長遠看是充分地可使用的貨幣聯合。 有短暫「匯合」，當貨幣在永久被固定了，主要1995年。 他們分流了自那以後。 裂口在南北之間不是破碎系統的足够在第一崗位鴯轉淡， dot-come胸像。 我們從那以後移動了長的路。 俱樂部Med團體巨型地現在依靠外資流入從塞住他們的經常往來帳戶空白的北部歐洲： 西班牙(10pc)，葡萄牙(10pc)，希臘(14pc)。 UBS警告這些流程不再是即將到來的。
亞洲、中東和俄國的中央銀行在歐洲債券停放他們的$6兆儲備大塊在歐洲罐頭擔當全球性貨幣制度雙胞胎柱子沿著美元的假定。 但歐洲是沒什麼像美元。 它沒有歐洲政府、稅或者社會保險系統支持它。 每成員國宗主，每劇烈地驕傲，回答對它自己的古老rythms。

它缺乏「財政調動」機制到開關金錢到沮喪的地區。 語言巴比倫在他們自己的國家保留工作者被別住下來。 勞動力靈活性排出閥一半被阻攔。 我們將發現鴯是否真正地有國家的政治團結的水平，通過風暴結合在一起使美國的貨幣聯合的種類。
我的猜測是政治抗議將指示下階段這戲曲。 差不多五十萬個人在單獨西班牙失去了他們的工作在最後一年期間。 全國無能的感覺在從法蘭克福的金錢規則面前將噴發入普遍的憤怒。 ECB將忍受它的自豪感和opt為一項微弱的歐洲政策，或者面對它自己的破壞。
什麼我們將看見是種族對底部由世界的主要貨幣，因為其中每一個設法貶值反對其他在叫化子thy鄰居政策支撐出口，或者的確簡單地，因為他們必須狂熱擊穿債務deleveraging的後果和徹底的暴跌的風險的減價。

JYMW