GFMS -- Growth in investment demand in the fourth quarter to drive gold through

新生

Growth in investment demand in the fourth quarter to drive gold through $700.
Gold Survey 2006 Update 1 was released today at GFMS’ Precious and Base Metals Seminar. The report suggests the first six months of the year saw heightened investor activity in the precious metal. In contrast to the principally buy-side market of the last six months of 2005, this year has seen increased two-way trading. Inasmuch, the net impact of investor activity on the gold market, albeit still positive, was significantly lower than that over the second half of last year.
Looking ahead, having recently gone through a relatively calm period and notwithstanding more recent weakness, GFMS believes investment demand has the potential to come back strongly. Specifically, Philip Klapwijk, the consultancy’s executive chairman, noted that “investor buying over the last quarter of 2006 could drive the gold price back through the $700-mark”.
GFMS’ contention is based on a variety of factors. Firstly, signs of a problematic US housing market create a bleak outlook for both the US economy and, importantly, the country’s currency. Elsewhere, despite tensions having somewhat eased recently from the peak they had reached during the crisis between Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian Territories, the situation in the Middle East remains extremely volatile, contributing to a general sense of unease and helping to maintain oil prices at still high levels. Finally, recent events in the United Kingdom have reminded the world of the perceived threat of global terrorism, adding to the overall feeling of insecurity. All the above make gold’s safe haven properties particularly attractive.
One major caveat to this hypothesis is the adverse effects an economic slow-down could have on gold investment. Such a development is expected to hurt the overall commodities complex, triggering liquidations in gold, initially through investors moving out of positions in commodity baskets and, eventually, through stop-loss selling in reaction to a falling price. Despite the consultancy’s expectation that gold investment could suffer some losses, should commodity prices come under pressure (which arguably has been happening recently), it believes it is unlikely that a full blown exit by investors will take place. In contrast, the problematic nature of the world economy and particularly in the United States, is expected in time to boost gold’s attraction as a safe haven asset and probably outweigh the negative impact of the bursting of the wider commodity bubblE.

新生

綜合外電，貴金屬權威咨詢機構GFMS在周二的年度黃金調查中表示，美國可能對伊朗采取軍事行動，能源供應數量下降，以及美元可能貶值，都將掀起黃金投資的熱潮。并且，美國貿易赤字嚴重可能造成美元貶值，也將為金價提供支持，年底金價將漲破700美元/盎司。

GMS執行董事Philip Klapwijk表示，盡管2006年上半年珠寶業黃金需求驟減，GFMS預測金價將繼續上漲。

Klapwijk稱，金價將徹底回升，因為近期美國房產發展滯緩，美國經濟增長繼續放緩，利率下降即將來臨。

GFMS認為，最近金價走低，只是因為缺少短期價格推動力，而不是持久的疲軟。

調查指出，如果美國經濟增長急劇下滑或是中國經濟擴張減緩造成商品跌價，那么金價將全面走低。

801GUEST

新生  在 2006-9-15 10:46 AM 發表:

綜合外電，貴金屬權威咨詢機構GFMS在周二的年度黃金調查中表示，美國可能對伊朗採取軍事行動，能源供應數量下降，以及美元可能貶值，都將掀起黃金投資的熱潮。並且，美國貿易赤字嚴重可能造成美元貶值，也將為金價 ...

現在生死兩茫茫啊:(:(:(

hzf518

如果美國經濟增長急劇下滑或是中國經濟擴張減緩造成商品跌價，那么金價將全面走低。
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