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本周關注美聯會要紀要將來襲
美聯會議討論了什麼??我們可以由美聯會議聲明略作探討
For immediate release Informationreceived since theFederal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest paceduring the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recentmonths, on balance, but the unemploymentrate remains elevated. Householdspending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sectorhas been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscalpolicy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences,inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, butlonger-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate,the Committee seeks to fostermaximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, withappropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recentpace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels theCommittee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees thedownside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as havingdiminished since the fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistentlybelow its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but itanticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the mediumterm. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation,over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committeedecided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities ata pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a paceof $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy ofreinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agencymortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rollingover maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actionsshould maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, andhelp to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will closely monitorincoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months.The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agencymortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate,until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a contextof price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace ofits purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook forthe labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, andcomposition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to takeappropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as wellas the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and pricestability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highlyaccommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for aconsiderable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economicrecovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the targetrange for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionallylow range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long asthe unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead isprojected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to bewell anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodativestance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, includingadditional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationpressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to beginto remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistentwith its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. Voting for the FOMC monetary policyaction were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; JamesBullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah BloomRaskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L.Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned thatthe continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks offuture economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause anincrease in long-term inflation expectations.
樂觀看待就業市場改善 失業率高企 經濟觀察：家庭支平^皇多 委員會會盡最大努力支持就業市場和物價穩定 監察經濟活動以決定增加或減少資產購買
當日市場對決議是先抑後揚
美聯會議聲明後至今令市場意外數據 １，從8月公佈的非農而言，市場並不認同美聯對就業市場動力，同時部份委員會亦認同 ２，CPI達到2%，達到美聯目標
現在市場已經不是考慮美聯會否減持購債 而是
什麼時間開始(一般預計9月) 會否推遲預計行程 削減模式,包括逐步削減,或減某階段時按經濟須要是否進一步決定 結束日期 經濟前景
不過從美聯會議上參考資料而言 美聯預計2014年中,失業率降至7.0%左右 這也符合伯南克表示了當失業率降至7.0%美聯預計將結束購債 而伯南克亦表示將於2014年中結束購債
當然由於市場已經消化了美聯減債行動,現在市場關心的是減債模式 不過兩項議題或許不應該為市場所遺忘:美國債息以及市場信心在減債後表現
ps.日期市場很快開始對美聯會議紀要進行步倉活動,市場或提前進入新聞交易模式 | 
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發表於 2013-8-20 15:32:23
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