One is for sure, all the analysis theories to analyse the gold running trend are for reference only, nobody can say they will be 100% accurate and reliable. As Guest #4 said above 任何理論分析短期走勢都不會準,因為人為因素太重. In fact besides so called 人為因素 (i.e. Hedge Fund Manipulation etc), a lot of other unexpected factors, e.g. war, disaster etc. may also seriously affect the gold runnung trend as well.