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發表於 2007-12-1 12:00:57
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原帖由 HW 於 2007-12-1 02:34 AM 發表
Finally this Nov.closed @ below 788.5 as expected. And for the coming week on Dec.is important for the coming big-trend. Detail will be post on the coming Monday after 900.
Wish all good luck ...
Hi,
Nothing to help~~ Just another up-dated commentary, just for reference:
A breach of the $90 and then even of the $89 level in crude oil for the first time on a month kept pressuring gold on this last trading day of the month. Traders booked whatever remaining profits there were left to book, and called it a day. The metal tried its best to regain the $800 mark overnight, but eventually failed to do so. One month implied gold volatility has approximatoldy doubled since August, to more than 20 per cent. Expect more of the same, and then some, as year-end conditions are upon us and funds square books. The gold market has stalled twice thus far in attempting to reach beyond the 28-year highs recorded earlier this month at $845.40. The US dollar meanwhile, continued to get nearer to the 76 mark on the index and shows no signs of imminently heading back towards lower values, let alone to its grave.
New York spot gold closed off of its lows (seen at $778.70) but still lost $12.10 on the day, to finish at $783.10 per ounce. The metal thus lost value on the day, the week, and on the month. Still, it was a month to remember, as we nearly made history again in the yellow metal. Soft oil prices and a firming dollar are keeping gold on a slippery slope, helping further attempts to test support near $770 (or lower) again. Although we may yet see some valiant attempts to break to and close above $800, the market's near-term and medium-term sentiment appears to have shifted considerably. (Note the deafening silence coming from the bull camp regarding the $900 or $1000 peaks we are supposed to be scaling before the holidays.) Silver lost 25 cents, to close at $13.98 and platinum dropped $5 to $1438.00 despite supply worries that persist.
You know by now that the seven-year long bull market would remain fairly intact were the price to retreat to the mid-$600's. You also know (but are less inclined to admit) that the surge beyond $732 all the way to $845 was gifted upon gold by the Fed's ill-advised rate cuts. Consider how healthy a "real" correction would be for the longer term outlook for the metal in an attempt to make this, say, a ten-year bull run. We may not get the opportunity to see the full forecast materialize, but the possibility should be entertained by anyone contemplating swimming in these waters.
December is upon us, and the first two weeks ought to provide plenty of excitement for those who have not yet had enough of it this year. Stay close to your screens and divide your attention between oil, the dollar and equities - gold is bound to keep reacting to them rather than taking the lead. Naturally, pencil in the December 11 date for the Fed as well.
Wish all the participants in GOLD MARKET can get what they want~~ |
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