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發表於 2009-4-2 00:18:08
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By: Creamer Media Reporter
1st April 2009
JOHANNESBURG - The perception that a retreat to gold was a sound value decision and a safe haven against xoxomodity and equity market collapses globally, has been questioned by a senior bank economist.
Addressing the first day of the Paydirt 2009 Australian Gold Conference, held in Perth, Westpac Economic research senior economist Justin Smirk said gold had a good future but was close to its peak price.
“It will continue to do well but it will be outperformed by other rebounding xoxomodities, which will move faster as economies recover.”
Smirk noted that gold was currently a good buy as a hedge, but perhaps not for much longer in terms of xoxoparison against other metals. “The world deflationary spiral has and is currently keeping gold below $1 000/oz and I don’t expect it to get back above that, or not by much, for about two years.”
He added that in real terms, and looking at the past 100 years, gold’s value in Australia had not returned to inflationary levels of the 1980s, which was around the equivalent of $1 600/oz.
“The metal will need an outbreak of inflation to have a strongly positive future, but that means other xoxomodities will also be benefiting at the same time and I would expect, outperform gold in every way, so on that basis, we question the perception of its true value.”
Smirk said Westpac’s forecasting suggested a gold price of around $914/oz in 2010, rising to $1 063/oz in 2011 and $1 150/oz in 2012. However, the bank’s own parallel forecasts for copper suggested the copper price performance would outperform gold over that period on a percentage basis.
Smirk acknowledged that the current rush to gold was hardly surprising, as cashed-up China and European economies, which would have invested a large share of their funds in the US, had turned away from that owing to the American economic downturn, and gold has been a short-term benefactor.
Edited by: Mariaan Webb |
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樓主: 魯賓
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