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發表於 2007-12-8 10:57:58
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原帖由 HW 於 2007-12-8 10:28 AM 發表
Actually, for the coming is so important for the coming trend's going. Around 785 is critical, all those buying @ 792-797 have to make a stop loss @ around 785. To confirm the correction ende ...
早晨~~再謝分析.
在這裡,轉帖一美國主編分析,可以從多一些角度去研究~~
Gold prices remained under pressure on the last trading day of this week as a slumping crude oil combined with a fairly steady US dollar converged against the metal's ability to remain above $800.00 for the moment. A stronger than expected US non-farm payroll figure was the initial catalyst to today's declines, but the metal was already appearing a bit fatigued after several attempts to tread water at higher levels.
New York spot bullion lost $6.90 to settle at $794.40 and while the metal gained better than $10 on the week, it remains more comfortable at these levels, at least until the interest rate decision is finally announced from the halls of the Fed next Tuesday. Participants are seen as squaring their books and may probably not be keen on making trading decisions of a larger order of magnitude at the moment. Silver dropped a dime to settle at $14.34 while platinum declined $7.00 to close at $1455.00 per ounce.
We have tried to bring confirmation of our perception of certain worrisome trends in the offtake of gold to our readers' attention for some time now, as we kept reading starry-eyed reports from various ill-informed sources that believed that Indian demand for the metal was alive and thriving despite near 28-year high values. We now have substantive figures to report on the matter, as reported by Bloomberg today:
"Purchases [of gold in India] in November fell to 12 metric tons from 59 tons a year earlier, according to the Bombay Bullion Association, which represents 230 trading companies. Imports slumped to 14 tons in October from 68 tons a year earlier." The past two months have been disastrous for jewelers,'' Suresh Hundia, president of the Bullion Association said in an interview yesterday. The October-December period is usually the busiest season in India for jewelry sales, spurred by the wedding season and Diwali, the Festival of Light. Jewelry demand may revive if prices fall to around $773 an ounce, he said."
We regret to inform the purveyors of perma-bullish news intended to convince you that price elasticity has somehow been eradicated from the gold market that such a situation is, indeed, far from being the case. The combined amount of gold that was demanded by the single most important country to the gold market over the past two months amounted to less than half of what a single month's consumption was in 2006, at prices some $200 lower than currently.
This revelation should not come as a surprise. Everything has a price at which buyers turn their backs and begin to balk - especially if they deem such values as being out of line with competing luxury goods. In this case, since we know that much of local gold demand is in fact investment-oriented, you can draw some additional conclusions as to why buyers stayed away from their local bullion vendor in October and November. After that, you can perhaps drop a line to your favorite newsletter vendor and query what they were smoking when they were actively trying to pull the wool over your eyes during the same period.
Remain on alert for more volatility and further attempts to clear congestion ahead of the Fed meeting. Economic news has actually been fairly constructive this past week - not exactly a set of numbers that argues for a must-have rate cut come Tuesday. The market may well get such an early holiday present, but resistance is layered above current values at at least three price points which may be difficult to overcome despite such background accommodation |
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