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發表於 2008-1-19 12:35:23
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原帖由 p7rea13 於 2008-1-19 11:24 AM 發表
建詳過900既話,每升10元沽1手
謝帖~~
不是想掃閣下的慶,只是我個人的失敗經驗....跟金子同活多年,沒見過us$500上....
$490全賣掉....$530開始空5單,作長收息心態....
過了一整年,感覺不會回到$500....開始去搜索資料,天天做功課
分析員一早已提出美國的內部經濟問題,美元要大幅貶值,很快會出現通縮.
美國是最大黃金需求國,因此會在一時間,可能打壓金價.....
我信....因此瘋了似的去認為該是時候去追單,目的只有一個,為求能追回所虧的本.
$640 2單, $660-670 9單,高峰16單....只要回到$612.....
我現還持有$812 1單....所以我並不會跟你唱反調....
只是以個人經歷作一個分享,有時理論跟現實還存在差距....
更甚是大基金,國家銀行,國家內部黑箱才是主宰
這裡是一個[公]的理,只作參考:
There is no Credit Crisis, no Recession and that is Why Gold is Going to $1500 - Hard to Believe? - Read on Friends By Kenneth J.Gerbino Jan 18 2008 9:07AM
The U.S. Press and just about everyone from Main Street to Wall Street have bought into yet another massive misunderstood
concept. Misunderstood concepts are very dangerous to your financial health.
The sub prime mortgage melt down and future ramifications are very real and the major financial institutions associated with all the
second and third level repackaging of this toxic paper are in big trouble. But the “crisis” is a hoax. Some big institutions lost a lot of
money in their investment portfolios but this is not a credit crises. If you ever got through Von Mises’ great book, The Theory of
Money and Credit, this would make sense.
Follow this simple example and you will understand why there is no credit crises and why a recession is probably not going to happen anytime soon and why this is astoundingly bullish for gold and silver.
Tom buys a house. Tom has no job, no credit, no savings and lied on his loan application.
He is like a few million other people in the same boat. Some bank or financial institution lent him money. The house cost $300,000
and Tom was lent the entire amount, 100% financing – no down payment. When Tom was lent the $300,000 he gave it to
George who was the owner of the house. George now has $300,000 and Tom now owns a house. So far so good.
Tom defaults. His bank cannot collect. His bank is in trouble. His bank has hundreds or thousands of similar loans. The bank has a
crisis on its hands. But hold on, George has the $300,000. The $300,000 has not disappeared. George has this money in his
bank or he bought a boat and the guy he bought the boat from has the $300,000. The money is still in circulation. It has not
gone to money heaven. The banks and the big Wall Street firms actually have a crisis, but it is an investment crisis not a national
credit crisis.
RECESSION POSTPONED
The Fed, the Treasury, the European Central Bank and the British National Bank are all pumping in hundreds of billions of new money to bail out the banks not the economy. But the economy will certainly get “stimulated” by all the new money.
Since the $300,000 is still in circulation (and you can multiply this by millions of other home loan examples) and the Central banks are adding even more money and credit to the economy, what is going to be the outcome of all this? It is going to be incredibly
inflationary. It is also going to assure that the economy will avoid a recession because there is now so much money sloshing around
the system that it will get spent or saved or used by someone else and therefore a recession will be postponed. The way a
recession could happen is that if the economy actually has finally petered out and all the mal- investment of the last cycle (real
estate being first on the list) is now creating dislocations that cannot be handled. But with all the new money being pumped into
the system and with continuing low interest rates this recession has surely been postponed.
The dollar will continue to go down as the Fed has decided to save the banks and flood the country with as much money as is needed to handle their crisis (the banks).
Gold is going up because this “crisis” handling means inflation is going to come back, possibly at the highest levels we have ever seen in modern times.
A SLOW ECONOMY
The home building melt down is very real. Many homes were bought by unqualified borrowers and speculators who are now in
trouble. With home building crashing (this is a key sector of the economy) how will this effect the U.S. economy? It, so far, has just slowed the economy down but because there is now so much more money in circulation some other areas of the economy appear
to be taking up some of the slack.
My guess is that instead of a 4% growth economy like we had because of the “housing boom”, we may have a 1.5% growth
economy. With the dollar so low tourism will increase and foreigners will come in and buy our goods and services. Our real estate
prices are not only going down but to someone with Euros our real estate is now at bargain prices. European yacht manufactures
cannot now compete with U.S. boat builders and at the recent Fort Lauderdale Yacht Show (the largest in the world) U.S. yachts
and boats were bargains if one owned Euros. Boeing Jets are also tempting to European airlines with Euros selling for a 30%
discount (in Euros) from just a few years ago.
MONEY AND INVESTMENTS
If there is a credit crisis, why is MZM money supply up almost $1 trillion in the last year? Why are Aaa Corporates only at 5.3%? Why was Industrial Production up 1.5% year over year in December? Employment up 1%. These are not recession or crisis numbers. The Crisis is a smokescreen used to rationalize rescuing an investment management crisis for the banks. The big institutions are being
bailed out and the guy in the street is going to pay for it.
In 1987 the U.S. stock market had its worse year since 1929 and 1974.
Trillions of dollars of wealth was destroyed in stock and bond values in 1987. But we never had a recession. This was because the
losses were investment losses. Money in circulation actually went up. Money, credit, and investments are three related but distinct animals.
In the present environment the banks investment portfolios are losing hundreds of billions and maybe as much as a trillion dollars
eventually but the amount of money in circulation is increasing not decreasing. Therefore the so called “economy” will move on and the inflationary impact of all this new money on top of all the old money that has been shoved into the system will make
inflation take off.
When Wall Street comes to it’s senses and realizes that the economy is now being flooded with money and none of the old
money has disappeared and the Fed is indeed going to keep interest rates as low as possible, the U.S. stock market should not
crash. The banking system will not collapse. Unfortunatoldy what will happen is an explosion of inflation and that will be a crisis. Every lower and middle income earner in this country will pay for this bail out because their paychecks will now buy less and less in the
future. Their standard of living will decrease. As usual the insidious paper money system will rob the poor and the lower and middle income earners (via inflation) and redistribute that wealth to the rich (the banks and the Wall Street firms that are being bailed out). There is no free lunch. But whenever one shows up, know that someone is paying.
The authorities have no choice but to inflate or have some major institutions go down. Eventually this will be an inflationary disaster. Gold will most likely go to $1500 within a few years. If one takes $850 gold and allows for only a 7% increase a year for 5 years –
the price is $1200.
Bottom Line
- The stock market already was overvalued and a 10-20% correction is expected. With all the money floating around some
- sectors will probably do OK. I do not like the stock market but do not feel a crash is coming. That happens when interest
- rates are high not low and when inflation returns forcing interest rates much higher. At that time the Fed won’t be able to
- stop it. Then the market will crash.
- A recession is most likely postponed because of all the money injected recently. How long is difficult to predict and we will
- have to see how the economic statistics unfold in the coming months to evaluate.
- Gold and silver are obviously the safest and best investments in a world that has the authorities with only one option. Print
- money. They have to bail out the banks and Wall Street and they have to pay for trillions of promises to their citizens that
- they cannot keep. This is global not just in the U.S.
- The money supply increases in India, China, Brazil and England are now almost beyond belief averaging 19% a year. These
- four countries are in the top 12 GDP countries in the world, contribute almost 30% of the world’s goods and services and
- employ 47% of the world’s work force. The future of gold and silver as an inflation hedge is definitoldy going global.
The future is like the past only more expensive. |
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樓主: 愛新覺羅迪克
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agreed and special thanks to you, information valuable provider!!!
