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發表於 2008-3-21 23:47:24
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To : 苦海無涯
Dear 苦海無涯
By Alex Roslin Mar 11 2008 2:06PM
Bullion’s rise looks wobbly on the charts. A blowoff top in gold and silver probably occurred last week after both precious metals
powered to highs, then closed down for the week. The Commitments of Traders data issued last Friday added more evidence of
looming trouble for the sector.
My trading setup for gold has now joined my silver setup in going bearish. The gold setup works by trading on the same side as the large speculators in gold futures and options, as reported weekly in the COTs reports issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Normally, the large specs are seen as the “dumb money,” but I’ve found that’s not always the case. It may depend in
some cases on what timeframe you use to watch them. The large specs tend to be trend followers, so that would tend to make
them right during major trends and wrong only at extremes, particularly if they stay in too late. In gold, they actually seem to bail
out in a fairly inTELligent way.
And last Friday’s data shows them bailing out of gold. Their net position as a percentage of the total open interest hit a bearish
extreme that, in the past, has suggested reliable selling points. My gold setup works with a two-week trade delay (see table below
for more details), so execution will be for the open of Monday, March 24.
By Merv Burak CMT Mar 10 2008 10:11AM
The short term chart and indicators are giving us a much more worrisome picture than had the other charts. Here we see the
potential topping more clearly. Despite some very volatile days, this past week was basically a sideways move for gold. All week it
really didn’t go anywhere. This sideways motion becomes more worrisome when we look at the short term momentum indicator.
Despite a new high in the price of gold on Wednesday the momentum indicator barely rallied. The higher lows on Thursday and
Friday, versus the low of Tuesday, showed up as lower lows in the momentum indicator. This is showing some serious short term
weakness in the price action and has the potential of turning the trend for gold downward.
又往上中...仲未看到頂
因此不得不想個方法,但我會小心D,
只希望閣下多作提點就心滿意足了~~
can you do me a favour TELl me where can I found those writing ?
Thanky inadvance for your generous help .
Brgds/material/new comer |
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