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發表於 2008-4-11 01:30:43
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原帖由 苦海無涯 於 2008-4-11 01:19 AM 發表
我都覺得唔好意思,打擾迪兄的論壇
再借空間轉帖......又打攪了
New York spot gold started the Thursday session with a small $0.60 gain, at $934.60 after having bounced off resistance at $the
$940 area. Possible tests of $945/$955 could result over the next two days if the tea leaves in the economic data line up against
the US dollar again. Participants also await words by Mr. Bernanke later in the day, but for the moment the dollar/oil duo are driving
the action.
As London-based consultancy and research group GFMS presented its annual analysis of the preceding year on the gold market
yesterday, a number of issues surfaced. Among them, trends that we have alluded to in earlier reports and which we also observed
in the recent CPM 2007 Yearbook. Mining Weekly relays the story:
"Presenting the findings of the group's 'Gold Survey 2008', [GFMS analyst] Neil Meader said that the price of gold would likely reach a peak, perhaps around $1,100 per ounce, either in the last quarter of this year or in the first half of 2009.
However, he pointed out that the subsequent correction, which GFMS expects will take the price to levels around $600 per ounce
in the longer term, represented a shift from previous forecasts.
"I think that's important to bear in mind ... previously, in all our forecasts we were only talking about the push being one way –
higher - but now I think it's very possible to start seeing the endgame," he commented.
"I think we would say...we've got another 12 months of strong prices, and after that we would expect to see the market turn; it
could be 18 months."
Gold prices were pushed skywards in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first few months of this year, largely by investment
demand, as a weakening dollar, the US credit crisis, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions and uncertainty raised the metal's
attractiveness as a safe haven, or wealth-preservation investment."
On the other side of the demand coin, higher metals prices do, however, lead inevitably to a slowdown in demand for gold
jewellery. While GFMS estimates that global jewellery fabrication rose 5% last year, growth was entirely in the first half, before the
price surge, with fourth quarter demand dropping by over 20% year-on-year.
Further, looking ahead, Meader expects a "substantial drop" in fabrication demand, as both manufacturers and retailers contend with high and volatile prices.
This market imbalance would be unsustainable in the medium to long term, "and in the light of that, we are expecting at some point that prices will fall, and fall quite heavily", Meader said.
唔知有幾高可能性呢?想下先.... |
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