|
|
發表於 2008-4-2 00:59:04
|
顯示全部樓層
原帖由 CDO 於 2008-4-2 12:44 AM 發表
當日950係分界，上下位係1030及870，每邊80美元!
另一分界係850，上位冇變係1030，下位可以去到 ............. 680 ，不過基本因素無咩理據支持，就看樓主分析比較安全!
CDO兄:
830的機會比較大,是吧!!如果這人的理論正確....後市會見2042
Corrections.
Markets will always have corrections. They should be welcomed and not feared. They allow those who wish to take profits to do so. New players are given the opportunity to establish positions which become platforms for further rises. Just 3 months ago gold was a
round $800. A 25% gain to a level of $1,000 in such a short period left everyone who had ever bought gold, even during the
previous 3 months, with a good profit on their investment. It represented a prime opportunity to take profits. Significant profit
taking precipitated the current correction.
As mentioned, the gold market is now dealing with Large wave II, which is anticipated to be a correction of approximaTELy 16%.
Corrections are notoriously difficult to analyse and can come in all sorts of complex formations absorbing varying amounts of time. We will wait to see how this correction evolves and will analyse it in a future edition of these Updates.
The current underlying fundamental financial and economic circumstances are chronic. The recent Bear Stearns episode could only
have occurred if the US financial structure was on the verge of a systemic melt down. The evidence allows for no other
interpretation.
In the same way that the bankruptcy of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in June 2007 marked the tip of the iceberg of the sub-prime crisis, the demise of Bear Stearns itself may well be the tip of the iceberg marking the start of major counter-party problems in the
OTC derivatives market. There will almost certainly be more situations akin to Bear Stearns.
With this scary fundamental situation underlying the markets, it is realistic to anticipate that the current correction in the gold price may be sub-normal, i.e. less than the 16% expected decline, and may be over fairly quickly. A “normal” large correction of 16% from $1011 would produce a target of around $850. A 12% correction, which is possible in these circumstances, would produce a target of about $890. If the 12% decline is calculated from the cash market high price of $1033, the target becomes about $910.
It seems that any price below $900 represents a buying opportunity, especially when we consider what comes next in this gold bull market. What comes next is Large III of Major THREE. Readers of these Updates will be familiar with the “third of the third”
concept. This is the time when one can expect the strongest and most violent gains. Entering a period of “third of the third” at the two largest wave magnitudes portends a great deal of excitement. It is not the time to be too cute. It is a time to fasten seat belts and hold on grimly.
Updated forecast templates.
Now that Large wave I has been completed, it is appropriate to update the forecast templates for Major wave THREE.
Template Revised 24 March 2008:
Actual Structure of Large Wave I of Major Wave THREE. London PM Fixings:
| Small Wave 1 | 6 Oct 06 to 1 Dec 06 | $560.7 to $648.7 | +$88.0 | +15.7% | | Small Wave 2 | 1 Dec 06 to 10 Jan 07 | $648.7 to $608.4 | -$40.3 | - 6.2% | | Small Wave 3 | 27 June 07 to 8 Nov 07 | $642.1 to $841.1 | +$199 | +31.0% | | Small Wave 4 | 8 Nov 07 to 19 Nov 07 | $841.1 to $778.8 | - $62.3 | - 7.4 % | | Small Wave 5 | 14 Dec 07 to 17 Mch 08 | $789.5 to $1011.2 | +$222 | +28.1% | | Large Wave I | 6 Oct 06 to 17 Mch 08 | $560.7 to $1011.2 | +$451 | +80.4% |
Revised Forecast Template Structure of Major Wave THREE: London PM Fixings.
| Large Wave I | 6 Oct 06 to 17 Mch 08 | $560 to $1011 | +$451 | +80% | | Large Wave II | 17 Mch 08 to ? | $1011 to $850 | -$161 | -16% | | Large Wave III | ? to ? | $850 to $1572 | +$722 | +85% | | Large Wave IV | ? to ? | $1572 to $1320 | - $252 | -16 % | | Large Wave V | ? to ? | $1320 to $2042 | +$722 | +55% | | Major Wave THREE | 6 Oct 06 to ? | $560 to $2042 | +$1482 | +260% |
Forecasts highlighted in yellow
The above forecast for the peak of Major THREE at $2042 assumes that Wave III and V will be equal at $722. If they turn out to
be equal in percentage terms, then the target for the end on Major THREE increases to $2442.
It will be possible to attempt an estimate of the likely shape of Large III once a low point has been established for Large wave II
which is under way at present. The low point of Large II will be the starting point for Large III, the analysis of which will be for a
future Update.
In the above forecast it has been assumed that Large II will decline the full 16% and not the suggested 12% smaller magnitude due to the chronic underlying fundamental circumstances. It should be noted that there is an outside possibility that the current
correction may exceed 16% by a small margin, perhaps declining by 18%. That would give rise to a forecast decline to $830 for
the low point of Large II.
Alf Field
24 March 2008 |
|
樓主: 澤霖
IP卡
狗仔卡
顯身卡
