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發表於 2007-1-12 19:10:17
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Volatile buying could push gold to record high Printable Version
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Published: 09:48 Friday 12 January 2007
By: Douglas Bence, Companies Correspondent
Gold could hit an all-time of over $850 an ounce this year, according to the web site TheBullionDesk.com, but potential investors are warned that it could be a bumpy ride.
Although the web site expects a relatively modest average increase over the year of 18% to $712, it thinks that it's perfectly possible that there will be a spike in excess of the record.
The price will be pushed up by a combination of a weakening US dollar, stagnating mine production, buoyant oil prices, political tension and inflation, it says.
A further factor could be bullion purchases by one or more of the 12 members of the European Central Bank.
Since the launch of the euro in 1999, ECB members have been major sellers of gold and helped push the price down to a 20-year low at the turn of the century.
But there have been reports that one of the member banks bought gold the week before Christmas. Although neither the amount nor buyer was identified, the price of gold rose $4.10 an ounce to $640.
Institutional investors are expected to 'demand growth arising from a broader access to gold both across a broader geographic spectrum as well as in terms of more products such as Exchange Traded Funds and bullion-linked indices,' said TheBullionDesk.
This could fragment the market and lead to liquidity problems, so the price volatility will remain high. Over the last five years gold has increased by 23%, 25%, 5%, 20% and in 2006, 23%.
Although silver is very much in the shadows so far as bullion markets are concerned, over the last three years it has increased in value by 28%, 38% and 42%.
With copper up 44% last year and nickel 148% higher, this may seem modest for what is often a mining by-product, but TheBullionDesk says investor demand 'remains resolute and is driven by the belief that mine supply is finite'.
Industrial and consumer demand from Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to reach levels that the West takes for granted.
'Silver remains a beneficiary of that mood and we forecast stronger for longer,' added TheBullionDesk.
The South African mining industry has been working hard to meet the demand for platinum which traded between $1,075-$1,495 an ounce in 2006, averaging $1,350.
Some industrial experts have been concerned that the high yet volatile price could stimulate activity looking for substitutes.
'With the possible exception of fuel cells, the all-important auto and industrial sectors remain wedded to platinum and strength in the US and Asian economies is likely to continue to fuel demand,' said TheBullionDesk.
With palladium, possible supply delays from Russia will drive the price which averaged $435 in 2006.
'That aside, we remain positive about palladium prices notwithstanding concerns of a slow-down in the US economy as industrial demand slows,' said TheBullionDesk.
'As a comparator to platinum, palladium remains very cheap and shares most of the chemical properties, while palladium jewellery demand is at last establishing itself,' the website added. |
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