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發表於 2008-1-12 00:28:29
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原帖由 反斗星 於 2008-1-12 12:05 AM 發表
 本人揚帆出海 時機已到
Good Luck~~
New York spot gold dropped $0.70 on the open and was quoted at $890.20 on this final trading day of a week that we promised
you would bring plenty of commotion and fresh entries into the record books. Much of the chatter out on the sidelines is starting to sound like an auction "Going once...twice...Do I hear ...(insert your favorite target figure here)?" Overbought? Yes. At risk of
correction? Sure. Does it matter? Apparently not. Not until the last panicked small investor sells his stock/bond/real estate/cash/life
savings/etc. and hurries into gold - a move he or she should have undertaken in a sensible way perhaps half a decade ago. But, fear not, we are told. $2,200 is still a looong ways down (or is that up) the road...
After having virtually touched the $900 value marker overnight, gold prices leveled off near $890 per ounce amid continuing declines in crude oil and the (brief) recapture of the 76 plateau on the index by the US dollar. Oil prices have been on a slide of significant
proportions ever since the realization among speculators that the US and Japanese economies are at risk of recession has set in. The latest price tickers show black gold at near $93 per barrel. Much less noise about $100 - and higher - oil is audible these days. If
anyone needed confirmation of the rising anxiety levels among the nation's monetary stewards, well, they surely got it yesterday -
straight from the...boss's mouth.
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its three, six and 12-month forecasts for gold because of a weaker outlook for the U.S. dollar. Gold will trade at $885 an ounce in three months, from a previous estimate of $795, the bank said in an e-mailed report today. The metal will reach $900 in six months, from a previous forecast of $785, and $800 in 12 months, from a previous prediction of $750, the bank said."
but wait...
"The performance of the US dollar remains the principal determinant of the gold price, "said James Steele at HSBC who has raised his 2008 average price forecast for gold from $720 to $800. “Our new forecast is below the current (spot) price as we expect gold to decline in the second half of the year due to a recovery in the dollar," said Mr. Steele.
We agree with the dollar recovery part but have already given a price range projection. Our next adjustment -if any- will be made
(as usual) only in June.
Stay tuned for an adjustment period, do not discount the possibility that we could still have a $900 print before today draws to a
close, but pity the Chinese gold buyers who have to pay sky-high prices ahead of the Year of the Rat. Let's hope that either a
recession is indeed averted, or that speculative funds remain oblivious to the potential contraction in metals demand - should one hit - for a bit longer. Just don't have lunch with an oil trader... |
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