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Elliott Wave Gold Update 16
By Alf Field
Oct 1 2007 4:22PM
Finally, the $100 Upward Catapult arrived.
TWO MONTH’S AGO:
Data updated to 9 July 2007.
MARKET ACTION SINCE THEN:
Data updated to 28 September 2007.
The past three Gold Update newsletters highlighted the following bullish technical factors
that evolved in the gold bullion market:
the unusual irregular corrections within wave 2, which had bullish connotations;
this was accentuated by these formations being skewed upwards, indicating a very strong
underlying demand for gold in the physical market;
the continuous churning (including three declines in the 7%-8% range, all within the same
corrective wave) that was building increasing momentum, like a hammer thrower spinning,
was likely to generate a big move upwards;
the anticipated move was to be wave 3, generally the strongest wave in the sequence.
These factors gave rise to the forecast of an "upside catapult of at least $100 without a
significant correction", which expectation has now been achieved. The starting point of
wave 3 was a PM fixing of $642.1 on 27 June 2007. Last Friday, 28 September 2007, the PM fixing was $743.0, a gain, thus far, of $100.90. The only correction since wave 3 commenced was the 3.9% decline depicted in the above chart as wave ii, finishing at $657.5.
This sharp “catapult” type rise confirms the previous analysis of the very unusual, irregular, upwardly skewed corrections. It was the only pattern that fitted with the 7%-8% magnitude of the corrective waves in wave 2. The rhythm of the corrective patterns has been 4%, 8% and 16% at increasing orders of magnitude, and 8% was what was expected for wave 2.
Perhaps it will help to understand this if we re-visit the “Template” or guide lines suggested in Update XI for the breakdown of the smaller waves within major wave THREE. These
forecasts have been slightly edited to take account of recent events:
The following is the forecast template for the entire extent of Major Wave THREE as
depicted and explained in Update X:
Forecast Template Structure of Major Wave THREE:
Wave I 6 Oct 2006 to ? $560 to $870 +$310 +55%
Wave II ? to ? $870 to $730 -$140 -16%
Wave III ? to ? $730 to $1230 +$500 +68%
Wave IV ? to ? $1230 to $1030 - $200 -16 %
Wave V ? to ? $1030 to $1600 +$570 +55%
Wave THREE 6 Oct 06 to ? $560 to $1,600 +$1,040 +186%
We are currently in wave I of major wave THREE. We can now insert the first two minor
waves of wave I and make a guess at the remainder of wave I as follows:
Forecast Structure of Wave I of Wave THREE based on London PM Fixings:
Wave 1 6 Oct 2006 to 1 Dec 2006 $560.7 to $648.7 +$88.0 +15.7%
Wave 2 1 Dec 2006 to 10 Jan 2007 $648.7 to $608.4 -$40.3 - 6.2%
Wave 3* 27 June 07 to ? $642.1 to $790.0 +$148 +23.0%
Wave 4* ? to ? $790.0 to $727.0 - $63 - 8.0 %
Wave 5* ? to ? $727.0 to $870.0 +$143 +19.7%
Wave I* 6 Oct 06 to ? $560.7 to $870.0 +$270 +48.2%
* Forecasts highlighted in yellow.
There are three important points to note:
Owing to the upwardly skewed nature of the wave 2 correction, the end point of wave 2 at $642.1 (which is also the starting point of wave 3) is above the low point of wave 2 at $608.4. This is far from ideal, but it seems to be the correct way to deal with this unusual set of
circumstances. Thus wave 3 of wave I is measured from $642.1.
Within wave 3 of wave I (the wave we are currently dealing with) there should be 2
corrections in the 3%-4% range, of which the first has already occurred. Thus there should
be another correction of approximaTELy 4% before the end of wave 3.
The $870 target for Wave I of Wave THREE was derived from the expectation that the
historic 1980 highs in the $850-$870 range would be a magnet for the start of a larger
correction. This is pure speculation. The peak of Wave I could well be higher or lower,
something that will be estimated once the current wave 3 is complete.
Third waves have another characteristic that is sometimes useful. They often have a
mid-point gap that can be used as a measuring gap. The mid-point gap can generally be
recognised by the fact that it is also a “point of recognition”. That simply means that the market has come to acknowledge the new reality. In this case, the realisation that the gold
market REALLY is in a bull phase. There have been several gaps in the current wave 3, but so far none has been accompanied by an adequate degree of “recognition”. Thus the mid-point measuring gap of wave 3 possibly lies somewhere in the future.
If the mid-point gap occurred this week, for example, at say $750 and we use the beginning of wave 3 at $642.1 as the starting point, the gain to the mid-point would be $107.9. ($750-$642.1). The target for the peak of wave 3 would then be calculated by adding $107.9 to
$750 = $857.9. That would place the probable peak of wave I of wave THREE well above
the $870 target depicted in the Template above.
Another clue to the peak of wave 3 will come from the 4% correction (wave iv of wave 3)
that should be expected soon. Once this has occurred, it will be possible to do a more
accurate analysis of the minuette waves in wave 3 and thus estimate a target for the peak.
The gold market seems to be well set in an impulsive upward pattern that should take the
gold price to new all-time highs in due course.
COT’s and the Commercials.
The chart below shows the COT figures for the net positions of Commercials and Large Investors in Comex gold futures during the past 3 years. The chart shows that the Commercials have increased their net short position in gold futures to the largest level in some years. One has to go back to October 2005 to find a similarly large net short position. The other side of the trade has been taken by Large Investors and their net long position is now also at its largest, again the same as it was in October 2005.
What happened after this situation last occurred in 2005? The gold price then was $470 and
it subsequently embarked on a rapid rise to $730 (a gain of 55%) in just 7 months! If the
same thing happens on this occasion, a 55% gain would place the gold price at over $1,000
within 7 months – and that would be VERY bad news for the Commercials.
COMMERCIAL’S AND LARGE INVESTOR’S NET POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 3 YEARS:
Alf Field
1 October 2007 |
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