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發表於 2006-7-29 22:51:50
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dwksin 在 2006-7-29 14:14 發表:
By,
停加息, 股市上漲, 正常, 但停加息的原因係經濟放緩, 咁公司盈利如何保持增長, 股市如何創新高? 過往的經驗, 第一次加息要買股票, 加了n次息之後, 股市已在高位, 所以要小心, 如果開始第一次減息更是沽貨的 ...
dwksin,
I guess you still didn't catch my point. Suggest you adopt a global view to look at the US's rate increase exercise which was in force during the past 2 years. The reason behind their rate increase is mainly to vs inflation and it seems their object or aim has now been achieved at this juncture. The US has to temporarily curtail the rate increase subject to further review of the future economic development not because of the reason you reckon i.e.停加息的原因係因經濟放緩. Everybody knows economic expands too quick will cause inflation and will not do any good to the peoplel or the country related. I think China is facing the same problem nowadays and that's why 宏觀調控 is being enforced to aim at achieving economic soft-landing eventually. General speaking US has no 經濟放緩 problem at this moment and in fact they have reached to a status they feel more comfortable and will boost the economic up again.
"停加息, 股市上漲, 正常, 咁公司盈利如何保持增長, 股市如何創新高? 過往的經驗, 第一次加息要買股票, 加了n次息之後, 股市已在高位, 所以要小心, 如果開始第一次減息更是沽貨的時候, 因減息的理由是怕經濟已到頂峰, 有可能向下跌, 高位的股票更是危險, 大家可以番查歷史。" - This is another issue, better to dicuss it later when have time. One thing is for sure is that 公司盈利 is not just depending on 減息 or low interest only, there are a lot of other factors which may affect a company's profit making potential as well. A good company can also earn reasonable high profit during high interest environment. That's why economists always advise people not to buy rubbish stocks, better buy blue-chip stocks. The latter has more earning power and more reliable than the former.
Sorry I am using English instead of Chinese casue I have to use more time in using Chinese input. |
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發表於 2006-8-1 21:29:09
