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發表於 2007-12-19 22:51:09
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回復 #35 笑傲江湖 的帖子
請容許在下在此轉貼今天一美國金融網主編的論點:
Gold prices eased to just under $800 in the spot market overnight, on the back of a slightly
firmer US dollar (at just above 77.50 on the index) and amid signs of a calming of nerves
following the more than half trillion dollar helicopter drop upon the market system over in
Europe. The trade is quietly winding down ahead of the holidays but the remaining
participants continue to watch for any signs of economic and/or financial turmoil before they
let go of too much of their long position. Bullion may not get much encouragement from the US mortgage market these days, as
home foreclosure activity shows some signs of declining
with a second drop in November in three months.
New York spot gold started the mid--week session on the downside, losing $3.90 to $799.00 bid, as players attempt to assess
whether recent buoyancy in the greenback is a
crystallizing trend or just a temporary twitch. The mood over in Europe on the other hand
points to possible rate cuts in the not too distant future, which could further boost the
dollar. Silver dropped a nickel to $13.98 and platinum continued firm, gaining another $7 to
$1514.00 per ounce. The metal is being boosted by tightness and fears of more of the same as Russia's supply pipeline looks iffy at
the moment. Choppiness may remain the theme during the day and oscillations on either side of $800 could keep smaller investors
guessing.
Although Mr. Trichet, the head of the ECB, appears concerned over inflationary pressures in
the Eurozone and is thus trying to minimize the perceptions that any rate cuts could be in
the cards, he is being contradicted by the reality on the ground. German consumer
confidence dropped to a two-year low last month as inflation is ``poisoning'' spending,
research company GfK said Nov. 28. The Euro's strength has translated into serious danger
for many a company dependent on exports for a living. The euro's 9% gain against the dollar
this year is eroding export returns.
Airbus SAS Chief Executive Officer Thomas Enders last month called the currency's
appreciation ``life threatening'' for the world's largest plane maker and said the company
may have to cut its research budget to trim costs. [Or, perhaps run over to Mr. Trichet and
ask for a bit of easing in the Euro for the sake of the many thousands of jobs at stake...]
Lehman Bros. thus opined that: "Policy makers won't change their rhetoric ``until it becomes much clearer that the credit crunch is having an effect on growth.'' - Such a shift could
come sooner, rather than later. According to Bloomberg again:
"The ECB is in a very difficult situation. On the one hand you have headline inflation and the
way it spills over into inflation expectations, and on the other hand you have a credit crisis,"
said Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in London. "Eventually the ECB will be forced into a U- turn and the next move in rates will be down rather than up."
Finally, we learned today that the Swiss CB sold just over 11 tons of gold in November, as
part of its plan to get rid of 250 of them before the end of 2009. This, in order to buy 'other currencies' - wonder which?
Stay alert for volatility as thinning conditions might make for disorienting moves. |
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