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發表於 2008-4-22 01:25:13
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原帖由 Touch 於 2008-4-22 01:20 AM 發表
me...also read another post saying that EURO's going down heavily m/t expected...as well as crude...
If you look at the chart below, the USD may be putting in a midterm bottom. Some commodities also sold off too or are just
holding. Oil is a separate case, in somewhat of a true shortage. Food is also out of the box with shortages. But, several weeks ago, we put out an alert that there is a commodity bubble. Possibly Friday's action was more confirmation of this, excepting oil which is in a speculative frenzy. A possible speculative frenzy in oil bears close watching because when oil hits record prices it can lead to a lot of profit taking.
Perhaps the other commodities that have not broken are going to follow. Oil might get a hit too, its action recently could be
interpreted as a peak at this time.
But take a look at this USD chart. This is very interesting:
If the USD is indeed bottoming, then gold can easily correct into the 700's in a bit of time. Also, this nonsense about the losses
peaking in the US mortgages is baloney. That did not stop the US stock market from rallying in continued denial and wishful thinking. In any case, if the US stock wish rally continues, then that is another reason for gold to correct. The USD and US stocks would rally and bring down gold, commodities, and oil possibly. Again, grains are an exception being in a critical world shortage.
I had a couple subscribers email me that they should have sold just recently to keep their gold gains. I want to say this: First, gold is a long term position for financial safety. Gold has risen a great deal in the last year. It can easily give a good part of that back. My
personal intention is to buy gold ounces back if there is a nice gold price correction to the 700's or something. A gold decline is
something that will work for me because I like to accumulate ounces when it sells off.
But gold stock and metal stock fans can be dispirited if gold corrects significantly. Since gold has risen so dramatically in the last year, $100 volatility in the gold price is actually almost normal. Gold's price corrections, even if it got to $700, would be within range for a
long term gold bull continuing. If gold got into the $600s, I would be concerned that the big gold rally of the last 5 years has
peaked for now. But we are not anywhere near that.
Being that as it may, if you felt you wanted to hold your gold stock gains, see how things go Monday and decide if you want to sell and take some of the profits in the last year |
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