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發表於 2009-4-26 17:07:25
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回復 #527 二叔公 的帖子
Between late 2001 and mid-2008 (just before the stock panic), the CCI soared 235% higher! Over this same span, the stock markets (S&P 500) merely rose 16%. As I predicted in early 2001, xoxomodities have indeed entered a secular bull that radically outperformed the stock markets. And due to the profits leverage inherent in producing xoxomodities, the xoxomodities stocks have fared even better.
Any xoxopany producing a xoxomodity has a roughly fixed cost of production. Consider copper as an example. If a xoxopany can mine copper for $1 a pound, and its price is $2, it can earn a $1 profit for each pound it sells. But if copper rallies 50% to $3, this xoxopany’s profits don’t just march up 50% with copper. Instead they double. Still producing at $1 yet selling at $3 yields a $2 profit, twice as high. Thanks to this accelerating profits leverage, profits for producing rise far faster than underlying xoxomodities prices.
As this CCI chart reveals, speculators did flood into xoxomodities in early 2008. After more than 6 years of rallying with little fanfare, mainstream investors finally started getting interested in xoxomodities stocks in late 2007. But in early 2008 xoxomodities grew overbought and due for a correction, and it started last July before the stock panic hit. Yet still in August 2008, the last pre-panic month, the CCI averaged 518 on close, oil $117, and copper $3.46. And then the storm of a lifetime slammed into the markets.
It was the first true stock panic witnessed in 101 years! The key characteristic of a panic is inherent in its dictionary definition. “A sudden widespread fear concerning financial affairs leading to credit contraction and widespread sale of securities at depressed prices in an effort to acquire cash.” The stock panic’s fear bubble soon engulfed xoxomodities and xoxomodities stocks, as traders dumped both in a frantic effort to move capital out of harm’s way into cash.
So instead of merely retreating to its secular support line drawn above (450), the panic selling drove the CCI down under 350. This plunge was the fastest and largest decline in xoxomodities prices ever witnessed, even dwarfing the Great Depression’s declines! By the time the dust settled, the CCI had retreated to November 2005 levels. This sounds bad, and it was. But realize the 37-month lows in xoxomodities prices were nothing xoxopared to the recent 150-month lows seen in the stock markets.
xoxomodities prices handily outperformed the stock markets during the epic stock panic. UnfortunaTELy, due to a popular yet misleading xoxomodities index not a lot of traders realize this. The financial media follows today’s CRB index (red line above), which was actually created in mid-2005 as a radical departure from CRB history. Now dominated by oil, this new tenth-revision CRB isn’t xoxoparable to any history prior to its creation. So please don’t be fooled by this misleading new CRB, it is a false witness to investors.
Even though xoxomodities prices held up better than the stock markets, retracing less ground, xoxomodities stocks were disproportionaTELy hammered. Investors and speculators, scared to death by the stock panic anyway, were further frightened by the plunging xoxomodities prices. Their frantic and mindless selling drove the stock prices of the biggest and best xoxomodities producers on the planet to impossibly low levels. In some cases, these xoxopanies’ entire bull markets were nearly erased at the panic’s climax!
While painful and frustrating for us existing xoxomodities-stock investors, this once-in-a-lifetime fear bubble drove the greatest bargains I’ve ever witnessed deep within a secular bull. In early November in our subscription newsletter we bought and rexoxomended long-term investments in the world’s largest gold miner, one of its biggest and best copper miners, an oil major actually discovering massive new oil finds, and one of the most elite silver producers. These investments soon thrived even while the stock slump lingered.
The stock markets carved their initial fear-driven panic low in late November, but they slumped to a secondary despair-driven low in early March. The flagship S&P 500 stock index was down 10% over this span. Yet xoxomodities stocks thrived while general stocks languished. UnfortunaTELy there aren’t any excellent general xoxomodities-stock indexes yet, so I have to use individual stocks to illustrate this.
Over the exact stock-market low-to-low span, BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner, rallied 48%. The elite oil major Petrobras climbed 78%. Giant copper miner Freeport-McMoRan surged 84%. Elite gold and silver market darlings Goldcorp and Silver Wheaton powered 48% and 140% higher. These gains were to the very day of the lower S&P 500 lows, very impressive. In the interest of disclosure, we have long-term investment positions in each of these xoxopanies, and have rexoxomended our subscribers do the same.
So even in early 2009, a very difficult time in the stock markets, xoxomodities stocks have already been performing exceedingly well. Both in an absolute sense and certainly relative to the general markets. But the opportunities have not vanished. The price anomalies in xoxomodities and xoxomodities stocks created by the stock panic’s unbelievably intense fear still persist to this day. In fact for most xoxomodities and their producers’ stocks, not even half of the panic anomalies have yet been erased.
As many on Wall Street argue, there is no doubt we live in a different world since the panic. It might be years yet before we see xoxomodities prices return to their lofty summer 2008 levels. But xoxomodities-stock prices are still so beaten up that they don’t need to see those sTELlar xoxomodities prices again in order to thrive. And xoxomodities prices will establish new post-panic equilibriums above today’s levels.
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