你信唔信Carry Trade(套利交易)會整瓜個市﹖」

kwy

金星  在 2007-3-1 11:30 PM 發表:

我仲有122YEN...:D

恭喜！

睡睡

KBG  在 2007-3-2 02:29 發表:

为何油、铜等能独善其身,原因是油从78跌到49，铜从3.9跌到2.2，大部分资金已抽离（从交易量可看得出来），所以现在日元借款在这两 ...

Oil Is Back And So Is The Russian Bear

   Author: Monty Guild and Tony Danaher


  



   


OIL PRICES ARE RAISING AND THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO $70 OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PER BARREL

It is not a surprise to us that oil is raising. One need only look at the recent revisions of the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, particularly for non-OPEC oil production growth. The IEA had estimated that non OPEC member’s production growth would be about 1.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2006. After repeated revisions, this number is down to about 600,000 barrels per day. On top of that the IEA had been predicting that in 2007 non OPEC nations would increase their oil production 1.7 million barrels per day. Today, their 2007 forecast is for only 1.2 million barrels per day. This continues a pattern of gross overstatements of supply from non OPEC members and has made energy economists understandably, increasingly skeptical of IEA estimates.

This is very significant when you consider that the IEA has also recently made a major upward revision to their estimates of China’s demand for oil and warned OPEC that production cuts could seriously tighten the market.

It is reasonable to expect that a lot of companies and countries who hire energy economists are buying oil. The economists are pointing out to their bosses that since production estimates are too high and demand estimates are too low, prices will rise.


RUSSIA IS IN TROUBLE AND MAY NOT REGAIN IT’S FOOTING……THIS COULD CREATE A PROBLEM FOR EVERYONE

Currently, Russia appears to be irritated and angry about many things. They have some money and lots of resources. They lack entirely a viable system of economic expansion that will increase the well being of the citizenry at large. Their economic system is a series of mechanisms to enrich elites.

Russia’s system of elites is a problem. The power struggles between the economic elite, military elite, former KGB elite and others, and the fact that they suffer from a distrust of the people create a tenuous situation. The elites do not have boundaries on their acquisition of wealth and power except where they step on the feet of the other elites.

Boundaries must be put on these elites. They can not keep taking resources from the country indefinitoldy. Russia’s past policies are damaging the public at large and are damaging the country’s future. Russia has no history of democracy, but there must be some restraints on these power centers, or the country cannot and will not act in a way that allows it to gain respect and influence in the rational and reasonable members of the family of nations.

The history of the Former Soviet Union and other states has shown that if you do not create economic benefit for your citizenry at large, in today’s world of mass communications the word gets around.

When your citizens learn that better opportunities exist elsewhere, they desire to leave. In order to hold onto you citizenry you will be forced to use repression, threats and hand outs in various forms to maintain your population and stimulate your birth rate. Without an economic system which benefits the masses to some degree, and simultaneously allows the nation to enjoy economic growth, this charade can only go on for so long. Eventually, the system will collapse, in our opinion.

We are concerned that Russia is in danger of becoming such a state.

Thanks for listening.

雷文

睡睡  在 2007-3-2 10:32 AM 發表:

Oil Is Back And So Is The Russian Bear

   Author: Monty Guild and Tony Danaher


OIL PRICES ARE RAISING AND THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO $70 OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE PER BARREL
...

many thanks!!! 不過冬季漸過油價應該係時候再調整，個人認為65壓力不少。

今日連日本仔都唔渣起隻金，奇怪? 多頭要忍一忍手好一點。

淘金一族

谢贴

BY

BY  在 2007-3-2 02:25 發表:

Carry Trade(套利交易)整瓜個市 - 沽金沽銀去还日元借款。

Carry Trade(套利交易)整瓜個市 - 沽金沽銀去还日元借款。


看來Carry Trade(套利交易)的效应还未完結，咖仔年結是三月底。

雷文

BY  在 2007-3-3 12:38 AM 發表:

Carry Trade(套利交易)整瓜個市 - 沽金沽銀去还日元借款。


看來Carry Trade(套利交易)的效应还未完結，咖仔年結是三月底。

日本仔今日威番次，唔賴野，今早開市沽返轉頭都奇怪!!!

昨晚講一講，未夠24個鍾連645都見麻，才跌0.5回吐，而白銀13美元都穿麻，已超過0.618回吐，白銀次次都係咁，無緣!!! :(:(:(

睡睡

规模2.65万亿 利差交易掀拆仓潮？
规模2.65万亿 利差交易掀拆仓潮？

　【本报讯】（记者　陈嘉文、林德芬）环球股市近日下挫，有分析员认為与日圆利差交易（Carry　Trade）平仓有关，市场规模估计高达3400亿美元（约2.65万亿港元）的利差交易近日因日圆加息及升值触发平仓潮，从股市抽资引发环球大跌市。不过，本港财金界人士均认為，现时环球游资充裕，日圆利差交易平仓对本港资金影响有限，亦看不到本港有资金流走的跡象。

　银行公会主席兼渣打香港行政总裁苏利民昨认為，近日市场的日圆利差交易对本港股市影响不大，亦未令资金从本港流走。他指出，本地资金仍然充裕，即使有利差交易拆仓，亦不会对资金流向构成明显的影响，暂看不到本港有资金流走的跡象。

各地经济基调仍良好

　 他又指，近日环球及本港股市波动，属正常调整，因各地经济基调仍然良好，料本港今年经济有5%至5.5%的增长，而资金流向仍然稳定，目前市场只是出现一个调整，估计未来几个星期的市况仍会较波动，但其后将会回稳。

港匯显港资金仍充裕

　反映本港资金充裕程度的港匯指数，截至昨晚9:20，港元兑美元报7.8135，与上月中认购反应热烈、冻资达2251亿元的匯源果汁（1886)招股时的水平相若；3个月本港银行同业拆息昨收报4.23%，较上日的4.25%收市价為低，显示本港资金仍然充裕。

　就外间估计规模达1,700亿至3400亿美元的庞大日圆利差交易近日掀起平仓潮而拖低环球股市，本港基金界人士指出，虽然本港亦有对冲基金做日圆利差交易，惟难以估计金额是多少，但相信对本港市场资金的影响不大。东驥基金管理董事总经理庞宝林认為，主要因对冲基金借日圆回来后，也不一定投资于香港，但也不能排除日前内地股市及国企股大跌与此无关。

仍难界定鸡与蛋关系

　星展银行环球金融市场副总裁温灼培指出，近期环球股市下跌或与日圆利差交易有关，但暂时仍难以界定到底是股市下跌引发日圆利差交易平仓，还是利差交易平仓导致股市下跌，惟相信利差交易平仓活动对金融市场的打击不大，主要是目前环球游资仍充裕。他又指，预期日本下半年仍有机会再加息一至两次，每次幅度為0.25厘，日圆兑美元于年底时有机会挑战110的水平。



投机资本1/3来自日本

　【本报讯】（记者 林德芬、陈嘉文）日本日前进一步加息，影响热钱进行利差交易（Carry Trade）的意愿，使投资者撤出利率较高的新兴市场，回流日本，间接造成新兴市场股市回落。

套利交易资金明显回流

　数据显示，虽然目前利差交易市场的计算方法不一，但规模巨大倒是不争事实，其一举一动自然对股市產生巨大影响。

　据《华尔街日报》昨报道，三菱东京UFJ银行首席外匯分析师Osamu Takashima认為，所有日圆利差交易的价值约1,700亿至2,200亿美元，而其中与对冲基金相关的价值最多為850亿美元。摩根大通银行驻东京首席外匯策略师Tohru Sasaki则推算，连同日本共同基金投资国外债券的2,500亿美元在内，全球利差交易的总价值约為3,400亿美元。

　 另有分析人士估计，目前活跃在亚洲国家股市的投机资本，大约有1/3以上可能是来自日本的钱─即国际投机者从日本「借」出钱投向中、韩、印等新兴市场股市。

　 也有分析人士认為，有基金借入日圆，炒新西兰币，故近日新西兰币追随新兴市场股市回落。去年五月的全球大跌市，也同套息投机活动有关。

日圆先生︰5月或再加息

　【本报讯】(记者 陈嘉文)据外电报道，有「日圆先生」之称的日本财政省前货币政策主管神原英资(见&#22270昨日表示，日本央行今年5月可能会再度加息，而非等到7月国会大选时才加息。

日圆本周大幅升值3%

　他表示，国会开会期间容易加息，主要因执政的自民党对货币政策的批评，会遭到反对党的反击。分析人士指，日息如果持续上升，势将加剧目前日圆利差的平仓潮，更多包括对冲基金在内的投资者撤出股市，拖累环球股市进一步下跌。

　日本央行于上月提高隔夜放款利率至0.5%，是六年来第二次加息。神原英资指出，日本央行早该于去年12月就升息，估计日圆暂时将维持弱势，日圆匯价会在1美元兑115日圆至120日圆之间徘徊，1欧元会在150日圆左右。他又指，预期所谓的日圆利差交易将持续一段时间，主要因利差交易需逐步解约。

　受利差交易出现平仓潮影响，令日圆匯价急升，由上周1美元兑121日圆的水平，升至近日的118水平，日圆本周升值约3%，截稿前兑美元报116.8日圆。
何谓利差交易？
　利差交易(Carry Trade)又叫套息交易，简单来说是借入低息货币，以购买其他投资工具，如股票、实物资產、高息货币等，从而赚取中间的差价。以日圆為例，虽然日本央行于上月加息0.25厘达0.5厘，但与其他已发展国家相比，息率仍然相当低，故不少投资者均借入低息日圆(或沽空日圆期货合&#32422，以买入其他高息货币或资產，从而赚取当中的利率差价，导致日圆长期不断被人沽售而低迷。

　若然日息趋升，将令日圆匯价转强，而利差交易的成本亦会增加。投资者為减风险，就会平掉手上的利差交易仓位，即拋售各国的股票或债券。由于这类仓位涉及的金额非常庞大，故此近期日圆的平仓活动对全球金融市场构成重大的影响。

睡睡

曹曹

[Mar 3] 戏院火烛踩死多过烧死



　　3月2日，周五。恒生指数升95.41，收19442.01；成交五百三十一亿八百多万元。3月期指仲微微低水，收19431点。盈科保险（065）升35.4％，见七元八角三仙，创1999年7月7日上市以来最高。中海发展（1138）升2.1％，见十元八角二仙，控股股东中海海运集团与神华集团扩大合营企业珠海新世纪航运

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后市展望，G7经济进入放缓期，金砖四国（BRIC）经济开始降温。中国对原材料需求仲系好大，A股市场O偏高，令可预测性下降；印度经济情况在转坏中。日本情况亦令人担心，日本消费者老化，对高级消费品需求下降，令LVMH等品牌面对压力，必须迅速开拓中国市场去抵销日本市场饱和。俄罗斯亦令人担心，因油价去年下半年起回落。至于巴西因经济多元化，比较难估计。

　　中信银行计划4月上市，以A+H方式同步