大家發咗牛年財未?

二叔公

原帖由 魯賓 於 2009-2-17 01:50 AM 發表

谷大多會爆禾

衰仔你壞哪

二叔公

哎~我尋日響第度睇到咖~牛郎你睇睇
哎~我尋日響第度睇到咖~牛郎你睇睇
在 24 Jan 09, 指出 北海 Brent Crude 因為質量略遜於美國 Western Texas Intermediate , 一向較 WTI 略平, 但最近逆轉, Brent 反而貴過 WTI, 最高曾相差 9 美元一桶.因為 WTI 定價, 取决於石油重鎭 Cushing 之原油供求量. 所以, 只要在 Cushing 之 WTI 原油出現滿瀉現象, WTI 叫價自然大跌.
問題是, 公認最好的 WTI 原油, 經過幾十年的採探, 一早已是買少見少的稀有品種, 為何突然又有大量供應, 泉湧而出 ?
這箇令在下更加相信, 油價暴跌是一個 one-off phenomenon, 一次過的人為操控現象, 是因為有人偷偷將戰略石油儲備 (SPR) 拋出市場. 為何說是「偷偷」? 因為 SPR 法例規定, 要總 統下令, 每次動用要公佈.

最近 ( 12 Feb 09 ), Rob Kirby 對此有深入研究, 發現 :

i. 有關方面曾試圖用立法程序 ( H.R. 6067, The Invest in Energy Independence Act) , 容許將 SPR 中的優質石油儲備 拿出來使用, 代之以一紙合約, 日後還油 ( 還的是質量較差之 heavy oil ) 和補貼差價, 整個便是所謂 "Oil Swap " , 但法案最後被認為有損 國家安全, 不獲通過.
ii. 但有間接証據顯示, Oil Swap 正秘密進行, 見諸於能源部 08年年報, 有一句提及有將墨西哥灣產油, 「代替其他原油」放在 SPR, 即是有 Oil Swap.
美國大力打壓油價, 對石油用家而言, 好事也.
美國的目的, 一石數鳥 :

1. 减少通漲壓力.
2. 减少政治壓力.
3. 對勢力坐大的產油國 ( Russia, Iran , Venezuela .. ) 施下馬威
4. 美國巨大石油企業可以趁勢對中小型能源公司擇肥而食, 一统江山.

SPR 約有百多日存貨, 以之推出市場壓價, 在下估計彈藥最多可頂 1 - 2 年.
一兩年後, 油價相信有極大反彈. 因為 SPR 用去了, 平油令市民大眾的慳油意識減弱了, 大量高成本油田陷財困了, 美元因大量印鈔而下跌了 . . . . 相信會淹去經濟下滑對油價的影i. 有關方面曾試圖用立法程序 ( H.R. 6067, The Invest in Energy Independence Act) , 容許將 SPR 中的優質石油儲備 拿出來使用, 代之以一紙合約, 日後還油 ( 還的是質量較差之 heavy oil ) 和補貼差價, 整個便是所謂 "Oil Swap " , 但法案最後被認為有損 國家安全, 不獲通過.
ii. 但有間接証據顯示, Oil Swap 正秘密進行, 見諸於能源部 08年年報, 有一句提及有將墨西哥灣產油, 「代替其他原油」放在 SPR, 即是有 Oil Swap嚮.

二叔公

仲有篇雞腸~嘩~若傳言屬實美國佬咪連棺材本都賭埋
U.S. Ban Being Lifted on Oil Shale in Wyoming, Utah (Update1)
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By Daniel Whitten

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- A 79-year-old executive order barring oil-shale development in Wyoming and Utah is being lifted by the U.S. Interior Department.

In Federal Register notices scheduled for publication tomorrow, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management said it will open 6 million acres in Wyoming and 1.7 million in Utah to leasing, pending analysis to determine if the land warrants special protections. The plan would take effect next month.

xoxopanies such as Exxon-Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. are studying production through a process that involves heating rock to extract oil. Western states may hold as much as 800 billion barrels of oil, potentially enough to fuel the U.S. for a century. Environmental groups have opposed such oil-shale production, saying it destroys pristine lands and requires great quantities of energy and water.

“This is really unorthodox in the sense that they are withdrawing 7 million acres of land without any public xoxoment process,” said Bobby McEnaney, a public-lands analyst at the National Resources Defense Council, an environmental organization. “This is begging the new administration to take a second look at this.”

Democratic Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado, President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for Interior Secretary, has spoken out against the Bush administration’s approach to oil-shale leasing, calling it hasty. Obama would have the power to reverse Interior’s action, McEnaney said.

In 2001, Interior withdrew land in Colorado from the 1930 executive order’s prohibition on leasing. The Federal Register notices clear the way for the Interior Department to put in place regulations it issued in November setting leasing guidelines in the Colorado, Wyoming and Utah, said Matt Spangler, a Bureau of Land Management spokesman.

Congress lifted a ban last year on drafting the regulations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Whitten in Washington at

魯賓

原帖由 二叔公 於 2009-2-17 02:00 AM 發表
哎~我尋日響第度睇到咖~牛郎你睇睇
哎~我尋日響第度睇到咖~牛郎你睇睇
在 24 Jan 09, 指出 北海 Brent Crude 因為質量略遜於美國 Western Texas Intermediate , 一向較 WTI 略平, 但最近逆轉, Brent 反而貴過 ...

咁咪益咗中國  呵...

二叔公

美國開綠燈去開採oil shale
益中國?想吓好咯

魯賓

原帖由 二叔公 於 2009-2-17 02:06 AM 發表
仲有篇雞腸~嘩~若傳言屬實美國佬咪連棺材本都賭埋
U.S. Ban Being Lifted on Oil Shale in Wyoming, Utah (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A

By Daniel Whitten

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- A 79-year-old ex ...

美個仲有幾伯噸金可以賣

魯賓

原帖由 二叔公 於 2009-2-17 02:09 AM 發表
美國開綠燈去開採oil shale
益中國?想吓好咯

中國可能暗地入油增加戰略儲備?

二叔公

原帖由 魯賓 於 2009-2-17 02:14 AM 發表

美個仲有幾伯噸金可以賣

問題系咪賣先

魯賓

原帖由 二叔公 於 2009-2-17 02:16 AM 發表

問題系咪賣先

救命時可能都耍賣啦  其实賣金好过油啦   石油有國安角色嘛

二叔公

都唔知班大帝想點搞