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發表於 2009-9-3 19:44:04
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Gold likely range-bound in short term
The price of gold is not expected to move too much in the short term, at least until the next real shift in global markets, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday.
In a report on the outlook for the yellow metal, Fitch analysts predict that, while the gold price remains near historic highs, as a result of investors seeking safety from more volatile assets, prices will likely remain "range-bound" in the short term.
The precious metal has largely hovered around the $920/oz to $965/oz range over the last three months, although it was a bit stronger on Wednesday afternoon, at $977/oz, buoyed by weaker equity markets and economic concerns.
Of course, waves of loss of confidence in the economy or weakening of the dollar will continue to send investors scuttling back to the safety of gold, which seemed to be the case on Wednesday.
“But we don't expect it to move around much from where it's currently been trading, until 'the next new thing' happens,” Fitch Ratings director Monica Bonar said in an interview from New York.
“And that could be until markets recover enough that people really start saying: 'Why have I got stuck in gold bars when I can capture upside in the debt market, or the equity market, or the housing market?'.”
While gold exchange-traded funds saw record inflows during the first quarter of the year, activity has since slowed, with the funds themselves reporting flat and even sometimes slightly lower gold holdings.
“It does looks like investors are already nipping at other asset classes,” Bonar xoxomented.
And if the inflation expectations that have helped underpin investment demand for gold wane in the short term, this would also back the case for a 'pause' in overall demand.
In the longer term, Fitch views investment demand as robust and expects that it should support relatively high prices over an extended period, “first supported by a flight to quality, then as a currency hedge and finally, when the cycle turns, as a store of wealth in the emerging markets”, according to the report published on Wednesday.
As can be expected in a high-price environment, jewellery and industrial gold demand remain subdued, and are expected to stay that way through the downcycle. |
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