7 reasons why gold should surge

AiYa

By: Sean Brodrick - Dow Jones News

    * Gold extends gains on Iran
    * Jan gold output down 8.9%
    * SA gold output hits 85-yr low
    * 2006 gold demand hits record
    * $700 still in gold's sight
    * IMF urged to sell 400t of gold
    * 'Scope for gold to hit $850'
    * Investing in Year of the

       
Jupiter, Florida - I believe gold about to surge to $700 ... then $800 and potentially higher. Here are seven reasons why ...

1. China can't get enough gold

According to the China Gold Association, China's gold production hit 19.9 metric tonnes in January, up 25.7% from a year earlier. At this rate, China should produce 260 tonnes this year. And it's STILL not enough to meet Chinese demand - it falls about 100 tonnes short.

And the gap may be even BIGGER! This is "The Year of the Golden ", on the Asian calendar, and many Chinese buy gold to celebrate. China's 2006 gold consumption grew by an amazing 17%, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange reports that gold trading volume 72.83% in January.

2. Two India gold ETFs are launching

The first gold ETF in India is Benchmark Mutual Fund's Gold BeES. It launched on February 15. The second gold ETF in India is rolling out now, launched by UTI Mutual Fund. The new ETF is called, naturally enough, UTI Gold Exchange Traded Fund.

According to Rajesh Bhojani, President of Marketing for UTI Mutual Fund, about 30% of the gold market in India is investors. I wonder what the new gold ETF will do to that percentage?

3. Existing gold ETFs are pumping up demand

We already know what gold ETFs have done here in the US. When the StreetTRACKS Gold Shares gold ETF (GLD) started in November of 2004, it held about 100 tonnes of gold and gold traded at around $450 per ounce. Now, there are 476 tonnes and gold is trading around $650 per ounce. That's not a coincidence.

The Gold Shares gold ETF and other gold ETFs around the world make it easier than ever for people to invest in gold. Why?

Because there are several advantages of investing in GOLD ETFs:

    * No hassles of safety
    * No resale concerns
    * Quality Assurance
    * No making charges
    * More tax efficient in absence of wealth tax and long-term capital gains tax

Despite the recent sell-off in markets of all types, the amount of gold held by the GLD barely budged (down 2.2% from its peak). I expect US investors to start adding again, and that will drive prices even higher.

4. Investment demand is booming

Reuters reports that worldwide investment demand for gold should remain at historically high levels this year, with investors continuing to buy large volumes of gold in bullion, coin and jewelry.

CPM's 2007 Gold Yearbook report predicted investors would likely add another 39.7 million ounces to their gold holdings in 2007, after investing 43.5 million ounces in 2006.

I believe this estimate of demand is too conservative. See reasons 1 through 3 for why.

5. Central bank gold stockpiles have swooned to a 60-year low

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the amount of gold held by central banks and other government organisations declined for the eighth straight year in 2006. Bullion holdings were 867.6 million ounces last year, down 1.2% from 2005, the lowest since 1948, according to the World Gold Council.

The Russian Central Bank was the only one to make purchases last year, up 3.8% to 12.91 million ounces, according to the IMF. Speaking of China, it is still holding 19.29 million ounces in December - unchanged since 2001.

But here's some interesting news: China is setting up a managed fund to handle its more-than $1 trillion in currency reserves. This will be Asia's biggest government controlled fund.

China has to do something - 70% of its currency reserves are in the US dollar and the greenback could get creamed as China's currency, the renminbi (or yuan) appreciates. China is already losing money on the deal, writing off $3.4bn in exchange-rate losses in 2006.

In short, China needs to invest in something other than dollars. A smart move would be to buy more gold for its central bank reserves. Even a small move in this direction would send gold soaring.

What's more, central bank gold sales fell to 11.4 million ounces in 2006, down from 20.6 million ounces in 2005. If this trend continues, that will also boost the price.

6. Miners can't find new deposits fast enough

Analysis by Metals Economics Group shows exploration budgets increased to almost $7.13bn in 2006 - the fourth consecutive annual increase since the bottom of the exploration cycle in 2002 and the highest total since MEG began these reports in 1989. MEG analysed budgets for 1 624 companies (using a $100 000 cutoff), which MEG estimates covers about 95% of worldwide commercially oriented nonferrous expenditures.

Adding in the other 5% of companies gives total expenditures for commercial nonferrous metals exploration of $7.5bn. That blows past the previous high of $5.2bn in 1997 to set a new pinnacle of global nonferrous exploration.

So where is all this gold? Well, it takes time to bring new gold mines online ... and the big 'n' cheap-to-mine deposits have already been found. Meanwhile, production at existing but long-worked mines is grinding down. As a matter of fact ...

# South Africa's gold output fell nearly 8% in 2006 from 2005. It is now at its lowest level since 1922!

# US gold output for last year declined slightly from 262 tonnes to 260 tonnes.

# Australian production fell 4.5% to 251 tonnes.

# Peruvian gold production fell to 203 tonnes from 207 tonnes.

# Russian gold output dropped to 152 tonnes from 156 tonnes

# Canada's gold production fell a whopping 11% to 104 tonnes.

Bottom line: Big gold producers are finding it tough to replace their reserves. That's why we saw huge mergers last year. Yamana merged with RNC Gold; Glamis Gold bought Western Silver; Goldcorp merged with Glamis; Barrick bought Placer Dome.

Heck, just look at mine supply. Despite the price of gold rising for years, supply from mines is actually going DOWN. Since mine supply doesn't cover demand, where does the rest come from?

From scrap, central bank gold sales and stockpiles, all of which are being depleted. And that is a recipe for much higher prices.

7. Gold charts show opportunity

Take a look at a weekly chart of gold. You can see that gold is channeling higher. The rate of ascent is INCREASING. It is at the BOTTOM of the channel now. It appears that gold is presenting the best buying opportunity since January. The next big move will likely be over $700 per ounce. And if we have a breakout, all bets are off.

Those are seven good reasons why I think gold will head higher. I could give you a lot more...

AiYa

据政府矿业能源部说，秘鲁今年2月的黄金产量比去年同期下降，而银、铜和锌的产量增长。
   2月份黄金产量为12.5吨，比去年同期减少了25.2%。
   银产量增加到265吨，比去年同期增长了3.4%.
   铜产量增长了14.2%，到82498吨。锌产量增加了18%，到112948吨。
   政府没有说明黄金产量下降的原因，但是1月份最大的秘鲁金矿产量低造成总产量下降。
   纽蒙特公司的雅纳克查矿负责人说产量下降的原因是矿石品位下降和新开发项目生产拖期。
   秘鲁是世界第五大产金国和头两名产银国之一。锌和铜产量占第三位。

AiYa

上周金价继续小幅震荡，纽约期金周一以675.5美元/盎司开盘，周三最高见669.8美元，周四最低见654.6美元，周五报收663美元，整周振幅不过15.2美元。这是3月初大跌后，连续第四个小幅上扬的交易周。

对冲大户风平浪静

根据上周五公布的COT报告，截至上周二，投机大户增持看多合约1212张，同时减持看空合约487张，看多比例维持在80%不变；对冲大户则减持看多合约5055张，同时增持看空合约3575张，看多比例由30%下降到28%；同期散户则增持看多合约6757张，同时减持看空合约174张，看多比例由 76%上升到79%。总体未平仓合约数减少292张至35.94万张。

从大户动向来看，投机大户虽然倾向于看多，但是就增持净看多合约的绝对数量而言，几乎可以忽略不计。目前市场做多的真正力量，反而是散户。但是历史告诉我们，除了极个别时段，散户从来都不能决定市场走向的，由此而言，短期金价无疑缺乏真正的上升动力。至于对冲大户，目前的做空水平和四周前大致持平，大体处于正常范围。

由于近期金价波幅极小，因此很难说谁在市场中真的占据上风，因此投资者不妨也跟随大户，暂时多看少动。

格林斯潘影响仍在
近期油价重回65美元/桶，一般而言，油价对金价有支撑作用。但是这次金价却始终有气无力，未曾对油价上涨作出反应。许多分析师都认为，近期美联储前主席格林斯潘和现任主席伯南克的观点对决影响了市场的判断。格林斯潘认为，美国经济将在今年末陷入衰退边缘，但是此后伯南克却持相反意见。同为重量级人物，似乎市场还是倾向于多年盛名的格林斯潘———一旦衰退，油价必跌。没有通货膨胀，金价自然难有表现余地。

关注689和631美元
香港一位黄金分析师石，689和631美元是金价短期内的牛熊分界线，在未突破这两根分界线之前，金价依旧只能处于短期震荡格局。尤其是在消息面环球局势继续不稳定的情况下金价依旧不能突破677美元，那就更要谨慎处之了。同时，如果金价跌破642美元，那就有可能是试探631美元支撑的前兆。

holdon

谢帖

十字架

谢谢了！！

kikimaths

谢谢了！！

淘金一族

谢贴